QE Fatigue Becomes an Epidemic
With President Obama winning a second term the stock market became worried about several macro issues such as: the "fiscal cliff," the implementation of Obamacare and potential increased taxes particularly on income from dividends.
After investors and traders ran up the stock market on Election Day, massive high volume selling fueled the Dow's 313-point decline and the Nasdaq 75-point decline on Wednesday. These losses expanded on Thursday to a post-election decline of 435 points for the Dow and 116 points for the Nasdaq.
With stocks down significantly over the past two days and with the yield of the 30-Year U.S. Treasury bond down 22 basis points to 2.727%, stocks have become cheaper fundamentally.
At www.ValuEngine.com we now show that 66.4% of all stocks are undervalued. In an environment of declining stock prices this alone is not a buy signal. At the market lows on March 6, 2009, when I made a pound-the-table buy signal, more than 95% of all stocks were undervalued.
Looking at sector valuations 11 of 16 are overvalued, but only two by double-digit percentages; construction by 12.6% and consumer staples by 11.3%.
Let's look at the technical damage to the weekly charts:
Analysis of the Yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note (1.594%): The weekly chart continues to favor lower yields but my scenario is that the trading range continues between my semiannual value level at 1.853% and my monthly risky level at 1.452%.
Analysis of Comex Gold ($1732.2): The weekly chart will be upgraded to neutral from negative on a close today above the five-week modified moving average at $1,717.30 the Troy ounce, as my semiannual pivot at $1,702.50 provided a magnet after an Election Day low of $1,672.5. My semiannual, monthly and annual value levels are $1,643.30, $1,639.80 and $1,575.80 with quarterly risky levels at $1,844.90 and $1,881.40.
Analysis of Nymex Crude Oil ($85.00): The weekly chart for crude oil stays negative on a close Friday below the five-week MMA at $89.73. The 200-week simple moving average is a major support at $82.85 with my monthly value level at $76.96, and my annual and quarterly risky levels are $103.58 and $107.31.The 200-week SMA at $82.85 has been a magnet since mid-2009.
Analysis of the euro vs the dollar (1.2736): The weekly chart remains negative on a close today below the five-week MMA at 1.2865. My monthly value level lags at 1.2289 with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 1.2917 and 1.3048. A stronger dollar has put pressure on U.S. stocks as expected.