I Love Yahoo!'s Earnings Results and You Should, Too
That's what I wrote in "Yahoo!: The Best Is Yet to Come," and Tuesday's outstanding earnings release validates those words.
The summer heat be damned, shareholders need to get up and "Yahooooo!" at least once at the top of their lungs after last quarter's performance. It's everything and more than you can ask for. Yahoo!'s CEO Marissa Mayer is from Wisconsin (Go Pack!) and is on day 366 of one of the greatest turnaround stories of our time. Yes, a considerable proportion of share demand is driven by Yahoo!'s stake in Web site Alibaba, albeit that only tells part of the story.
If Yahoo! is a pure Alibaba play than perhaps you can argue the stock is trading near the right price -- but it's not. In fact, let's take a moment to temper our enthusiasm over Alibaba's potential valuation. We all know how well unbridled enthusiasm worked out for Facebook's
Also, China's regulators halted IPOs seven months ago while over 700 companies sit on their hands and wait for the green light. We have two or more potentially conflicting conjectures to consider.
Once the Middle Kingdom more fully embraces the free market again, Chinese investors will have a myriad of new investment choices. If regulators and underwriters screw it up, the flood of new offerings may resemble to investors what happens to a small town under a failed dam that lets loose a mountain of water.
Chinese regulators are new on the job and still figuring it out, but they are unquestionably smart. They will as soon realize the unintended consequences outweigh the false postulation of their desired price stability objectives.
Alibaba may list again on the Hong Kong exchange, avoiding IPO restrictions. For many, listing in Hong Kong may appear as a "no-brainer," but that ignores the political implications and considerations.
Alibaba is a unique asset and potentially a showcase for China's might, economic influence, and ability to attract equity capital into Shanghai. Don't expect an exclusive Shanghai listing, but also don't let it surprise you either. Of course, a dual listing shouldn't surprise anyone. Bottom line, YAHOO! may not receive as strong of a boost as some predict, but it doesn't need to.