Apple Is Crashing, but We're Not All Screwed!
NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- I don't want to come up with an extreme reaction such as, "Go to cash, people have lost their minds, the sky is falling!" We're not there yet, even with the flat insanity of a struggling Apple (AAPL) .
On the surface, it looks completely whacked. AAPL is tanking every other day, on a road to what might be less than $500. Blame the media and Wall Street's usual suspects crew of hack analysts. All of the Johnny-come-latelys who have decided to prematurely start buying the long-term line I have been selling for months .
The fact that veteran analysts allow noise to interfere with a still-intact long-term narrative should get them a place on the employment line right next to laid-off bank tellers and support staff .
Read my lips: This selloff in AAPL is a year too soon. That's what I explain in the linked article from the last paragraph. Let me say it another way.
AAPL dropped in what I think began as a rational and easily explained selloff. However, few analysts and few media members run in the business of rationality. If it bleeds, it leads. And if we have to, we'll cut it open ourselves to create an AB-positive gusher.
It's perfectly understandable that the media would act in this way, but the analysts on Wall Street -- don't they know better?
They do. But they have become media personalities -- some bordering on celebrities -- so they don't give the rational answer as much anymore. They sell the "You know, Apple might be in trouble after all without Steve Jobs" line about a year too soon.
Because, heck, people are nervous. They're scared. They can't make sense of this. They want answers. We'll give them the answers that will keep the story alive and keep the media calling us.
So much of the AAPL doomsday talk is a self-fulfilling prophecy pitched by analysts turned media whores. Pardon my French, but we're all adults here, and there's really no other way to put it.
If these guys (and girls) were responsible, here's what they would be saying.
This is not a fiscal cliff issue, in that the fiscal cliff will have about zero material impact on Apple's business. It is, however, a fiscal cliff issue in that investors are uncertain about almost everything as we head into 2013 except for one pretty strong certainty: They'll face higher taxes on their investment gains.
Early pressure in Apple, as Jeff Gundlach of Doubleline Capital said last month, was all about capital gains. AAPL returned loads of on-paper profits in 2012; given the uncertainty surrounding capital gains taxes for 2013, people took profits.
While it's never a bad idea to take profits, taxes probably shouldn't dictate too many long-term investment strategies.