Castlight Health IPO Illuminates Bubble Discussion
NEW YORK (TheStreet) - Castlight Health
Ted Tobiason, a managing director in the equity capital markets division at Deutsche Bank , said in a Wednesday client note that Castlight Health should give investors "sufficient reason" to seriously question an IPO bubble. Tobiason, however, also said Castlight's IPO was indicative of a willingness to invest earlier in a company's life-cycle if it possesses a new solution to a large addressable market.
Deutsche Bank wasn't listed an underwriter of Castlight's IPO. Tobaison also didn't directly dispute the notion that the deal's pricing could be indicative of a bubble.
Castlight Health provides enterprise healthcare cloud software that could allow employers to lower their overall healthcare costs, which have spiraled upwards in recent decades and hit corporate bottom-lines. The company priced its $200 million IPO at $16 a share, valuing Castlight at about $1.4 billion. Shares more than doubled in Castlight's first day of trading.
Currently, shares are trading at around $30 a share. That valuation comes in spite of the company's marginal 2013 earnings, and forecasts of $120 million in 2016 revenue and a $50 million net loss, according to Tobiason. "To some the fact that a company with only $13 million in 2013 revenues and negative gross margins can get a $1.4 billion valuation at IPO only to trade to a $3.9 billion IPO its first day is an indicator that we're in another IPO bubble," Tobiason wrote. "There are sufficient reasons to look at this seriously," he said.
But the market may be not that crazy.
Tobiason said Caslight Health's roadshow emphasized the size of the company's addressable market and the solution the company may offer to employee plans. Employer healthcare spending is at $620 billion, with 30% being waste and a majority of chief financial officers citing that spending as their primary cost concern.
Castlight estimated in its roadshow that the company's addressable market would be $5 billion, possibly a low estimate according to Tobiason, given its cost solutions for employee health plans. An expenditure of 1% of a company's overall healthcare costs on Castlight could lead to savings of 15% of total costs, something that investors keyed on, according to Tobiason.
The company also stressed its management experience. Co-founders Bryan Roberts and Giovanni Colella were instrumental in building AthenaHealth