Chipotle's Delicious, But Will Investors Feel the Same?
NEW YORK ( TheStreet) - Fast-casual restaurant darling Chipotle Mexican Grill
Chipotle shares currently reflect high investor expectations, specifically regarding accelerating same-store sales growth and earnings growth of 20% or more in 2014, Wells Fargo Securities analyst Jeff Farmer writes in a note on Monday. He rates the company "market perform."
"The Chipotle concept is a consumer favorite and consumer favorites are generally the last to be struck from the decision set list when the sector sees a reduction in restaurant occasions (as seen in recent quarters). We believe it is this consumer affinity that has largely been the driver of the concept's continued market share gains in the current environment," Farmer wrote.
Analysts, according to Thomson Reuters , expect earnings growth of 22% from last year's third quarter, to $2.78 a share. Third quarter revenue is expected to climb 17% year-over-year to $820 million.
Consensus estimates call for same-store-sales growth of 4.6% at Chipotle, however several analysts say the quarterly growth could be higher. "Our checks of 10% of company locations indicate that [third quarter] and [quarter-to-date same-store sales growth] is ~5%," Wedbush analysts write in a research note on Tuesday.
Chipotle shares are up 47% this year, compared to a 2% gain for Panera Bread
For the upcoming quarter, Farmer expects Chipotle to share sales trends for October and speak about the timing for its increase to menu pricing. He also expects Chipotle to introduce 2014 guidance for same-store sales, unit growth and general and administrative expenses, among other things. Chipotle typically likes to manage investor expectations with conservative numbers.
"We are looking for more of the same in 2014," Farmer wrote in his note. "We expect CMG to point to 'low-single-digit' [same store sales], 175-190 unit openings, 'low-single-digit' commodity inflation and 'flat' G&A costs as a percentage of sales."
Janney Capital Markets analyst Mark Kalinowski believes same-store sales growth could be as high as 5.8% for the quarter. It was one of four reasons the analyst felt comfortable upgrading his rating to "buy" from "neutral," according to an October 11 research note.
Kalinowski is also more positive on the stock for three other reasons. Most importantly, the company has strong long-term growth potential if it enters the breakfast market. Chipotle has not publicly made any announcement suggesting the expansion, but Kalinowski believes growth opportunities abound if Chipotle were to do so.
According to the note, which cites the Eater Philly Web site, Chipotle is quietly testing coffee at one outlet. The note also cites another blog that posted pictures in June of Chipotle serving Mexican-inspired breakfast items at an airport location.