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For the Holidays, Forget Retail Stocks

Tickers in this article: MA QQQ SPY V XRT

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- We've got enough decisions to deal with during the holiday season, so why complicate it even more by trying to decide which retailer to buy? 

J.C. Penney has been so beaten up, any positive news could pop it higher, but will that news come? Are people buying shoes at Foot Locker ? If so, are the shoes Nike or Under Armour ? Will Microsoft end up surprising analysts with stronger-than-expected tablet sales? 

Eliminate the what ifs and increase your odds at predicting the holiday winner. Here's why: One cannot possibly do enough channel checks to accurately figure out where the entire country is doing its shopping and the analysts aren't dependable enough for us to trust their "research." 

Instead, make it easy on yourself, buy Visa and Mastercard

This way, you don't need to predict where consumers are shopping, so long as they are shopping. With lower gas prices and higher online sales, it only increases the likelihood that Visa and Mastercard will be this season's holiday winners. 

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Visa and Mastercard are ideal because they don't just act as solid trading vehicles for a strong holiday season but also represent viable investments over the long-term. 

Visa became unusually volatile in August but has since started to regain the slow-but-sure grind higher that so many investors enjoyed for years. 

Right now, the stock is currently resting near resistance at $205 but is not overbought, meaning it could break through resistance and go higher or fail to penetrate and drift lower before finding temporary support, likely around $196. 

Unlike Visa, Mastercard has maintained the consistent, slow-but-sure price action. Shares pop and then coast higher, before fading lower down to the 50-day moving average, where support has historically been found. In fact, the stock hasn't pulled backed to its 200-day moving average since 2010. 

With that being said, Mastercard is near overbought territory and technically looks to be putting in a short-term top. As much as I'd like to grab the stock in the low $700s, I'm not sure how far the bulls will really let the stock decline. 

But I think we'll get our chance to buy. A lot of retailers are temporarily overbought, while the PowerShares QQQ , SPDR S&P 500 , and SPDR S&P Retail ETF are three broad-based indices near overbought territory as well. 

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I think the Black Friday and Cyber Monday hype is getting too optimistically built into these assets, which could ultimately be a sell-the-news type of event. Although in this bull market environment, that "sell" could be short-lived.

Either way, I believe investors will get their chance to nab shares of just about anything retail related at a slightly cheaper level -- a true holiday sale.