Housing Recovery to End Soon
On a positive note, the Federal Reserve has reported that aggregate household net worth at the end of 2012 was $66.1 trillion, nearly back to its pre-crisis peak of $67.4 trillion, reached at the end of the third quarter of 2007. Home prices have been steadily moving higher with January levels hitting the best point in six years. Existing home sales have risen and new home sales are at impressive levels. This is delivering tremendous performance for homebuilder stocks. Even delinquency and foreclosure rates are down. This week the market will receive more housing data and several key homebuilders like Lennar
J.P. Morgan analyst Michael Rehaut has a positive outlook on the housing sector and believes that housing industry fundamentals will continue to improve over at least the next 18 months. He points to lower inventories of homes and increasing sales. He also notes that most homebuilders on their recent first-quarter conference calls suggested solid demand trends in April. However, the recovery of wealth amongst individuals has not been uniform, causing the hesitation in believing in this real estate rally.
The wrench in the machine, though, is the potential for rates to go up now that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has signaled that he'd like to tap the brakes on bond buying. Even though the Fed has been buying bonds like a drunken sailor, banks have been careful about who gets a mortgage. You needed a near-perfect score to get a mortgage, which has kept the market in check. It is also the same thing that has some worried that if rates go up, this pool of buyers could shrink.
Chris Whalen of Carrington Investment Services believes the "recovery" in housing is not normal and he writes that it's not likely to endure unless job creation and income growth follow. He thinks the increase in home prices that has fueled the real estate rally is related to a decrease in the flow of distressed loans and foreclosures. He also feels that the refinance boom has peaked and bank lending is already showing signs of declining. Whalen is also concerned about the costs for banks associated with mortgages like agency loan guarantee fees. He recently wrote, "The huge legal and operational cost of dealing with legacy mortgage issues is going to drive most commercial banks out of the residential-mortgage business entirely."