If Apple Misses Earnings: The Ultimate Bear Trap?

Brilliant.

I don't agree with everything Pallotta wrote. Speaking of "intellectually lazy," he made the standard Apple vs. Amazon.com (AMZN) valuation argument and rehashed the old, context-lacking Steve Jobs committed the same errors Tim Cook is line. But, it's all good, because I see where he was going with it. I refuse to allow sideline gripes to take away from his thoughtful, bigger picture argument.

This whole mess has investors in an almost impossible position.

Very few people should be trading AAPL. Dig Robert Weinstein's excellent trading-focused AAPL articles and follow him on Twitter, but be careful; few people are as nimble as Robert and Tom DeMark, Market Studies founder and CEO highlighted in Robert's piece.

Even if AAPL goes up in a straight line from here, I'm not sure it's suitable for most long-term investors any longer. You need to be able to sleep at night; not worry that your future could come under fire thanks to an errant headline on a shaky iPhone 5 source report.

That said, you need to assess the situation for yourself on the basis of your personal financial situation and psychological makeup. Don't take this conversation with yourself lightly. AAPL has become serious business; it's no longer a moving party on the way to $1,111.

But, if Apple misses earnings, it might be the ultimate bear trap.

Apple's Cook and Peter Oppenheimer report next week. We say this before every Apple release, but this one probably is the most important in the company's history.

If Apple misses, or otherwise disappoints, the stock could make the recent collapse look tame. That might just present an opportunity of epic proportion for certain, thick-skinned, well-off and experienced long-term investors. Somebody who can take the heat and afford -- in the literal sense -- the inherent risk associated with buying AAPL in the doldrums.