Misunderstood Oracle May Pleasantly Surprise Investors
The complexity of its operations and products is part of the reason. One must also wonder if its investor relations department is doing the best job of clarifying the greatness of this global enterprise.ORCL stock is currently trading up 2 cents, or 0.07%, at $36.06.
This is how the IR department tries to summarize the capacity and scope of Oracle: "With more than 390,000 customers -- including 100 of the Fortune 100 -- and with deployments across a wide variety of industries in more than 145 countries around the globe, Oracle offers an optimized and fully integrated stack of business hardware and software systems.
"Oracle engineers hardware and software to work together in the cloud and in your data center -- from servers and storage, to database and middleware, through applications. Oracle systems: ¿ Provide better performance, reliability, security, and flexibility ¿ Lower the cost and complexity of IT implementation and management ¿ Deliver greater productivity, agility, and better business intelligence
For customers needing modular solutions, Oracle's open architecture and multiple operating-system options also give customers unmatched benefits from best-of-breed products in every layer of the stack, allowing them to build the best infrastructure for their enterprise."
Whether that's the most effective description or not, the analysts who follow Oracle are most impressed by the numbers. So let's take a look at the consensus estimates for the quarter to be reported Wednesday.
The 36 analysts who follow Oracle forecast earnings per share of 66 cents, up from 62 cents. The 6.5% increase keeps the bar low enough for a better-than-expected upside surprise. I'm anticipating EPS to be closer to 70 cents.
When it comes to sales growth, the consensus once again is unremarkable. The year-earlier quarter saw revenue generated to the tune of $9.06 billion. This year's quarterly revenue estimate is $9.38 billion, a paltry 3.6% year-over-year increase. Oracle's most recent quarter was challenging, as it was for most competitors, so it may be optimistic to hope for a higher number.
In the previous four quarters, Oracle surprised on the upside three times. That's the kind of track record that one might expect from an industry leader that has numerous streams of recurring revenue. Let's look at a five-year chart to get a better picture of how the price has performed and what factors seem to determine the share price's direction.
ORCL data by YCharts
The trailing 12-month revenue-per-share line and year-over-year diluted quarterly EPS growth correlate well with the stock's price performance. If Oracle can't exceed the analyst community's estimated expectations concerning these two metrics, a price pullback wouldn't be surprising.