Mojo Wave Includes Walmart, Others
Despite consumer confidence readings well below levels considered normal, many retailers have reached all-time highs or multi-year highs in 2012. Below, I update profiles for these stocks applying new monthly and quarterly value levels, pivots and risky levels.
On Sept. 12, the day the Federal Reserve announced QE3, I wrote Amazon, Apple and Google Now Overvalued . Amazon set a new all-time high two days later. Apple did so on Sept. 21. Google waited until last Friday, Oct. 5.
My concern about overvalued and technically overbought stocks this earnings season is that the downside risk is significant given a hiccup in earnings or lowered guidance. For the homebuilders, I profiled the best performer, but most of the stocks in this industry have similar profiles. In the retail-related stocks, I profiled three Dow components, but there are many stocks with similar profiles.
Amazon (AMZN) ($259.06 vs. $255.67 on Sept. 11) is still buy rated according to ValuEngine with fair value at $181.04, which makes the stock 43.1% overvalued. The ValuEngine one-year price target is $273.62. Amazon is up 15.3% over the past 12 months with a price-to-earnings ratio at a crazy level at 150.8 times 12-month forward analysts' earnings estimates.
The stock set a new all-time high at $264.11 on Sept. 14. My semiannual value level remains $236.23 with new monthly and quarterly pivots at $260.13 and $263.71, which makes it tough to call for yet another new high. This week's risky level is $274.90.
Apple (AAPL) ($638.17 vs. $660.59 on Sept. 11) is still buy rated according to ValuEngine with fair value at $617.36, which makes the stock 3.4% overvalued. The ValuEngine one-year price target is $675.61. Apple is up 73.3% over the past 12 months and has a reasonable 12.0 P/E ratio.
After setting an all-time high at $705.07 on Sept. 21, the stock ended last week with a close below its 50-day simple moving average at $657.78 with its 200-day SMA at $572.82. The last test of its 200-day was on Nov. 25, 2011 when that average was $363.90. Apple ended September below my new quarterly pivot is $674.2
Google (GOOG) ($757.84 vs. $692.19 on Sept. 11) has been downgraded to hold from buy according to ValuEngine with fair value at $744.04, which makes the stock 1.9% overvalued.
The ValuEngine one-year price target is $793.30. Google is up 47.1% over the past 12 months with a 19.3 P/E ratio. Google set its latest all-time high at $774.38 last Friday, Oct. 5. My new monthly and quarterly value levels are $720.41 and $713.85 with this week's risky level at $798.11.