Mortgage Delinquencies Falling
NEW YORK ( MainStreet) Consumers are keeping up with their mortgages and paying them on time as the mortgage delinquency rate declined for the ninth consecutive quarter to 3.61% at the end of the first quarter, according to TransUnion's latest mortgage report.
The mortgage delinquency rate, which is calculated by the rate of borrowers who are 60 days or more delinquent on their mortgages, has declined more than 24% in the last year, and it is now at the same level in the second quarter of 2008.
"It's encouraging to see mortgage delinquencies drop once again, especially during a period when mortgage originations slowed considerably," said Steve Chaouki, head of financial services for TransUnion, the Chicago-based credit and information management company. "This trend in improved performance is driven in part by lenders working their way through the foreclosure backlog, along with continued conservatism in underwriting new mortgages."
This trend is occurring in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the first quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014. The largest declines continued to occur in states that were impacted the most impacted by the mortgage crisis. In Arizona, the delinquency rate fell by 37.8%, while California also experienced a steep decline of 36.9% and Nevada's rate declined by 34.0%.
Arizona's delinquency rate in the fourth quarter was 2.81%, and California followed suit with 2.80%. Both states had delinquency rates nearly double the national average just five years ago and now are reporting rates significantly lower than the rest of the country.
TransUnion is forecasting that the downward consumer delinquency trend will continue into the second quarter of 2014, with mortgage delinquencies falling to approximately 3.40% by the end of June.
TransUnion's forecast is based on various economic assumptions, such as gross state product, consumer sentiment, unemployment rates, real personal income and real estate values. The forecast would change if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy affecting recovery in the housing market or if home prices begin to depreciate once again .
The decline in mortgage delinquency rates is a sign that the economy is improving and home values stabilizing, said Mike Kinane, senior vice president of retail lending product management at TD Bank, the Cherry Hill, N.J. financial institution.
"Since the beginning of the housing crisis, many of the mortgages that have gone past due have been stuck in the delinquency phase due to the length of time it takes to go through the foreclosure process," he said. "It's important to note that TD has not experienced the same delinquency issues that other lenders have faced. Due to our historically strong credit guidelines and our avoidance of exotic mortgage products and sub-prime lending, we did not experience a significant increase in delinquencies when the economic downturn occurred.