Sell Intel Now: It's in the Teens
How do I know this?
When TheStreet gave me a fancy title, Director of Social Media , it didn't provide the corner office I requested at 14 Wall Street. It didn't give in to my demands for a lifetime supply of Jim Cramer bobblehead dolls (those things break if you throw them hard enough). And it would not subsidize the cost of my recently-purchased Macbook.
I guess they were being reasonable and corporately responsible.
TheStreet did give me access, however, to our complete slate of Website traffic data. (By the way, thanks (!), we have been kicking butt lately). Among other things these data allow me to see the Internet address that "refers" a user to TheStreet.
The above-linked article made the rounds over 1,000 times via an internal Intel blog -- aka, the Intranet. Whoever included the story added one word to the end of the title: Yikes.
I didn't think much of that until I wrote a bearish article after CEO Paul Otellini stepped down and received a call from Intel's public relations/communications department.
They weren't happy. They made their case. They warned not to count Intel out. But I stood my ground. Here's what I told them, in a nutshell: Let's be honest here, if Intel did not miss mobile five years ago ... if Intel chips powered every Apple (AAPL) iPhone, we would not be having this conversation right now .
We agreed to keep an open dialogue going forward. I haven't heard from Intel since.
It's my sense that they're operating in defensive denial mode over there.
Witness a classic case of a company accelerating its own demise.
In the "Intel will die" article, I wrote:
I don't want to be anywhere near Intel. I can't put faith in the dividend yield providing support above $20 as erosion of the company's core business continues. I'm afraid INTC in the teens becomes a reality next year, if not sooner.
And here we are, with INTC fighting -- sort of -- to scratch and claw its way back to $20. It's so bad that it's not just fighting to get back to $20, it has to fight just to scratch and claw.
Some suckers will buy this thing in the near-term on value. Has Intel accelerated its dividend payment yet? If it does, we might see a pop. Fiscal cliff deal? That's good for some upside. Don't believe and definitely don't buy into the hype.
I have written extensively about Intel's problems. Don't tell me about the company's success in the server market. That's parallel to Research in Motion (RIMM) bulls citing "security" as the reason why the enterprise would not abandon Blackberry.