The Extreme Movers: Metals Bounce Coming?
-- Karl Wilhelm Friedrich Schlegel
NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- In last week's Extreme Movers Message , I highlighted the extreme strength that the energy sector was expressing as oil approaches the century mark and the Dow nears new all-time highs.
Followers of my writings know that I have been turning considerably more negative on markets since last week, as our Accelerated Time and Capital models used for managing our mutual fund and separate accounts got highly defensive. Intermarket trends have deteriorated, and it appears ever more likely that we are entering a corrective period.
On CNBC, I argued that the catalyst may indeed by oil itself.
Not much has changed as to leaders this week, but some interesting declines are worth noting. Every week I run a screen on the over 1,000 ETFs/ETNs I track to identify those areas of the investable landscape exhibiting extreme price behavior relative to their own respective 20-day moving averages. The idea is to see if there is a message happening beneath the surface of the market by looking at the opposite ends of winners and losers spectrum over a rolling one-month period. Take a look below for the latest results.
The Extreme Winners remain largely in the energy space. Oil equipment and services (represented by iShares Dow US Oil Equipment and Services and Market Vectors Oil US Services continue to get a strong bid as oil itself advances.
The broad sector as well through the SPDR Energy Select Sector Fund ETF also shows up on the list, which is a curious thing given the large-cap nature of the fund. Vietnam's vertical ascent is probably nearing a massively overbought level, which could be an interesting counter-trend trade should the correction I believe is likely begin to take hold in earnest.
The most different of areas here appears to be the Broker-Deals Index Fund , which is likely reacting to hopes for the "Great Re-Allocation" out of bonds and into stocks, causing a pickup in transactions and trading.
What is more notable is what appears on the Extreme Losers side of the equation, with Gold Miners , Silver Miners and Metals and Mining very badly in the red.
These areas have largely lagged the melt-up that began in June of last year, and I suspect this breakdown is a sign of capitulation. I very much think these areas are worth paying attention to in the weeks ahead given they they could outperform during a risk-off period.
Interestingly, very long duration bonds also have done poorly, likely to rally on an oversold comeback. If the fear trades of gold and bonds are extreme on the downside, it seems entirely plausible for them to rally in a major way.