The Major Equity Averages Face Weekly Key Reversals
Technically, I have been tracking the major averages into overbought territory on their weekly charts since the beginning of the year. It wasn't until two weeks ago when all five major averages had overbought weekly chart profiles.
All major averages will end today with continued overbought readings on their 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic at; 89.02 Dow Industrials , 90.08 S&P 500 , 86.71 Nasdaw, 93.39 Dow Transports and 91.77 Russell 2000 . Readings above 80.00 indicate overbought momentum.
Even with overvalued weekly momentum, today will time a technical reason for a market top if the closes are below lost week's lows at 13,906.73 Dow Industrials, 1513.63 S&P 500, 3182.19 Nasdaq, 5892.24 Dow Transports and 910.22 Russell 2000. This would confirm simultaneous weekly key reversals for all five major equity averages since Dow Transports and Russell 2000 set new all time highs this week, while Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq set multi-year highs.
Given weekly key reversals and lower closes the next two weeks, weekly momentum readings should be declining below 80.00 with weekly closes below five-week modified moving averages (MMA). This would result in negative weekly chart profiles.
This week's early strength had the major equity averages within the zone of my longer-term risky levels. The Dow Transportation Average led the way to an all-time closing high at 6020.67 on Tuesday, which was above my annual and semiannual pivots at 5925 and 5955.
The other major averages could have semiannual risky levels at 14,323 Dow Industrials, 1566.9 S&P 500 and 965.51 Russell 2000. If we do not confirm weekly key reversals today, there could be additional upside. However, with negative daily charts, the odds favor that we will confirm a stock market top even without weekly key reversals.
My recommended investment strategy in this market environment has been to sell strength to risky levels and reduce exposures to the stock market by at least 50%. This is a contrarian opinion as most buy-side and sell-side strategists on financial TV are telling investors that stocks remain cheap and to buy dips. I strongly disagree as there is nothing wrong with profit-taking.
Here's my weekly review of the key levels for the U.S. capital markets:
The Yield on the 10-Year Treasury note (1.984%) -- The weekly chart still favors higher yields, but my annual pivot at 1.981% was a magnet again this week. My annual and semiannual value levels are 2.476% and 3.063% with the annual pivot at 1.981% and a monthly risky level at 1.843%.