The Retail Bubble Stocks are Deflating

Tickers in this article: AMZN COST IYC LOW WMT

Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.

Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.

Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.

Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.

Amazon.com (AMZN) ($248.63 vs. $247.11 on Nov. 29 and $243.94 on Oct. 17): Set an all-time high at $264.11 on Sept. 14 and came close to a re-test on Dec. 18. Amazon is 33.6% overvalued, still has a hold rating and an extremely elevated trailing 12 months P/E at 648.6. The daily chart is negative with the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $241.77 and $228.46. The weekly chart profile is positive with the five-week MMA at $247.38. My semiannual value level is $236.23 with a weekly pivot at $248.91, and quarterly risky level at $263.71.

Costco Wholesale (COST) ($98.68 vs. $102.58 on Nov. 29 and $97.00 on Oct. 17): Set a new all-time high at $105.97 on Dec. 5 then the bubble popped. Costco is 1.1% overvalued, still has a buy rating and an elevated trailing 12 months P/E at 24.1. The daily chart is neutral with the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $97.94 and $93.93. The weekly chart shifts to negative on a close this week below the five-week MMA at $98.46. My annual value level is $89.71 with a weekly pivot at $99.40 and quarterly risky level at $108.47.

Dollar General (DG) ($42.95 vs. $49.58 on Nov. 29 and $50.29 on Oct. 17): Set an all-time high at $56.04 on July 7. DG is 16.5% undervalued, still has a buy rating and a reasonable trailing 12 months P/E at 15.4. The daily chart is negative with the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $47.10 and $49.04. The weekly chart stays negative on a close this week below the five-week MMA at $46.11. My semiannual value level is $39.16 with a weekly pivot at $45.87 and semiannual risky level at $53.23.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) ($39.72 vs. $41.42 on Nov. 29 and $40.52 on Oct. 17): Set an all-time high at $56.81 on June 20. DLTR is 20.6% undervalued, still has a buy rating and a reasonable trailing 12 months P/E at 16.7. The daily chart is neutral with the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $39.88 and $47.38. The weekly chart stays negative on a close this week below the five-week MMA at $40.41. My weekly pivot is $39.80 with semiannual risky level at $43.02.