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The empty-pockets economy? If you believe the Citigroup(C) story today, you are hearing that the rich people have empty pockets and it is time to unload Macy's(M) , Nordstrom(JWN) and Saks(SKS) . Makes sense, given how pathetic Coach(COH) and Tiffany(TIF) have become.
At the same time, the dollar stores keep rallying, and Wal-Mart(WMT) has become a total horse. Costco(COST) has been delivering, and so has Home Depot(HD) . Ross Stores(ROST) has been one of the best performers of the year, and while TJX(TJX) is down today, even the analyst who made the call said that TJX is the big beneficiary of the shift.
I think this is all about the disposable income trade. The lower-middle and lower classes, a huge cohort these days in this declining economy, benefit disproportionately from the cut in gasoline. The rich people don't even feel it.
That's why the stocks of the places the poorer Americans go are flying, but the places the wealthier people go aren't benefiting. In fact, I think the wealthier people are part of that cash-rich, confidence-poor cohort that has to do with a total lack of faith in Washington and knowledge that if there is a wrong thing to be done, it will be done.
I like this call OK, OK because I think the next month's numbers will be weak. Who knows, for example, how the weather has played havoc with stores? Look at O'Reilly Automotive(ORLY) . No one saw that coming. Or Bed Bath & Beyond(BBY) . Wow. I think the employment numbers are going to be horrendous.
But I also think that the stocks will soon be down so low that if we get news that Romney's doing better, that could change the psychology that's driving things.
So, go with the call. Remember, though, if you are selling Macy's, you are selling it down 10 points from where it was. Where it stops nobody knows, but I don't think it's all that far from here. Oh, and don't forget that J.C. Penney(JCP) still has a lot of sales to give to every other player.
Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, has no positions in the stocks mentioned.