Prepare for a Corporate Earnings Slowdown With Stocks

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Since the recession, investors haven't had to worry about U.S. corporate earnings growth, even if unemployment, Federal Reserve policy and a European sovereign debt spiral provided plenty of room for nervousness.

Deep into first quarter earnings season, U.S. companies are once again showing resilience and beating estimates. But amid the recent and sobering jobs reports, quixotic Fed messages, negative dispatches from Europe, and this past week's stock market swoon, it may be time for investors to question whether U.S. corporate earnings -- the lynchpin of an S&P 500 Index recovery from March 2009 lows -- will stall in 2012 and 2013.

Recent comments from top investors and strategists signal a corporate earnings slowdown is coming.

Deutsche Bank got the S&P 500 all wrong in 2011. Now, that may make the bank ahead of the curve in forecasting earnings growth.

Deutsche Bank, the biggest S&P 500 bull of 2011, and ValueAct Capital, a prominent activist hedge fund, both presented reasons why a U.S. earnings slowdown may be imminent in 2012 and 2013.

Their comments don't just counter the post-crisis drumbeat of strong earnings that drove recovering markets and outweighed a myriad of economic uncertainties like 8%-plus unemployment: the investors present a way to navigate what may be a new stock market reality.

"Having recovered from cyclically depressed levels, S&P 500 EPS earnings per share growth will be much slower than 2009-2011," wrote Deutsche Bank strategist David Bianco in a note this past Friday detailing the firm's outlook for the S&P 500. "Most sectors should deliver mid-cycle normal EPS in 2012 with the exception of Energy and Financials. We expect Energy to significantly over earn in 2012 and its EPS to decline in 2013. We expect Financials to under earn in 2012."