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It is tempting to believe that CMG might be underpromising and overdelivering (UPOD). The problem with extrapolating UPOD, though, is that the CMG guys indicated that this new quarter already is tracking similarly.
At times like this, I like to regroup and lick wounds as I have obviously been a CMG supporter since the stock was trading around $50. I thought the decline in gasoline would cut in its favor, even as the raw costs of beef are going to go higher courtesy of the drought.
Of course, the selling in these names seems overdone. But the pattern of disappointment is pointing to multiple down days before we see any stability.
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That seems to be our fate right now. Better to refocus on the dividend plays and circle back to the names that have done well. Because dwelling on which names have done badly has not been a particularly rewarding strategy for this particular earnings period.
Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long MCD.
A Trifecta of Wrong
Posted at 7:27 a.m. EDT on Thursday, July 19
Maybe the holders know nothing? Maybe they are spooked at every turn? Maybe they are all micro guys turned macro? Maybe the research out there is so bad that they make decisions based on faulty information?
How else can we explain these postmarket moves on OK earnings?
The first, IBM(IBM) , is incredible. I heard endless chatter that the quarter would be missed because the revenue would be weak. At the same time there was a relentless downbeat tone about the chart. The chart! Sure enough, sales fell 3%, but the number's $15.10 now, not $15.00, and when you have a stock that's cratered like IBM on what was supposed to be an earnings miss, revenues being the incomplete way of looking at this software and consulting company, you get the kind of ramp we see this morning.
How about eBay(EBAY) ? For weeks some research outfit I will not deign to even mention had been peddling a story about really soft merchandise sales. Every time the stock would lift I heard the rumor and it always seemed so rigorous. It was all phony. Although the charitable trust is in it for PayPal, merchandise sales were fabulous. I am blaming a bogus call out of a house that needs commission business for this one.