Cyclical Investing's Countercyclical Payoff: Street Whispers

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Private equity giant Apollo Global Management's(APO) investment success in chemicals conglomerate LyondellBasell(LYB) shows what big money private equity has discovered and what retail investors have yet to realize: Cyclical stocks can tell you the direction of earnings but that doesn't mean they say anything about valuations.

By looking at chemical giant LyondellBasell's continued recovery from bankruptcy -- and its sharp share gains since an October 2010 initial public offering -- gains made by the private equity and hedge fund investors who are its top shareholders illustrate that confusion may abound about cyclical stock valuations.

Be it steel manufacturer Alcoa(AA) , chemicals giant DuPont(DD) or equipment maker Caterpillar(CAT) , cyclical's are rightfully seen by investors as leading indicators for corporate earnings and the economy.

But as a read on the direction of stock market valuations those stocks may be the exact opposite. In fact, a look at the private equity and hedge fund score in LyondellBasell stands as proof of a crucial, but counterintuitive investing dynamic. The key is that while Apollo invested in LyondellBasell at peak valuation multiples, it also entered the company as it neared cyclical earnings lows after the onset of the Great Recession.

Now, many expect that the opposite. In fact, after a string of blockbuster earnings quarters in a shaky economy, continued optimism on LyondellBasell's shares hinge on whether its multiple rises as earnings peak.

The counterintuitive interplay between earnings and valuations is the key, after LyondellBasell reported better than expected second quarter earnings in late July. "We continue to believe that at 4.8x our 2013 EBITDA earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization forecast the stock is reflecting more peak-like earnings despite the fact that we are below mid-cycle levels that should improve over the coming years," wrote Credit Suisse analyst John McNulty, in a note to clients LyondellBasell's July 27 earnings.