Cramer Is Waiting for Alcoa to Drop

Tickers in this article: AA

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Debra Borchardt: Alcoa (AA) kicks off the earnings season on Tuesday but is it really relevant anymore Jim? I mean, we feel like we talk about Alcoa but they've had so many revenue misses in a row. Why do we care about Alcoa?

Jim Cramer: Because there's two Alcoas. There's the Alcoa that goes into Apple (AAPL) iPads, the back of an iPad. An Alcoa that goes into construction, it's a very big construction company. Alcoa puts a huge amount of screws in planes, everybody's plane, aerospace. There's turbine business, natural gas. There's autos, there's trucks. So you have this big panoply of end markets, but then there's the business of the commodity. The commodity is what's kept them down. No matter what you do you can't get the cost low enough. They did close some Italian and Spanish factories and that could help alleviate some of the glut. I know that it's a disappointing stock - over and over again.

I've got a piece I'm working on about how people should forgive and that maybe if they fail and Alcoa sells off it looks good. Look at the way Disney (DIS) bounced back and Deere (DE) bounced back and Discover (DFS) bounced back, Alcoa might be one to watch because if we get a second half worldwide recovery, Alcoa's going to do better.

Debra Borchardt: Analysts don't have very positive feelings towards Alcoa right now.

Jim Cramer: Number's too high.

Debra Borchardt: The average earnings estimate number has been coming down.

Jim Cramer: Still probably too high.

Debra Borchardt: Are they going to set that bar really low and then be able to get it?

Jim Cramer: They've set it lower and lower and lower and it's never mattered.

Debra Borchardt: It's like the limbo.

Jim Cramer: It's just never mattered so I don't know if it's going to matter this time. I do want to point out that there is value creation. There was a ratings downgrade, a questionable downgrade putting it on watch. I think Alcoa's balance sheet is getting better, not worse. So, I like what Klaus Kleinfeld, the CEO, is doing. I don't want to give up on Alcoa. I think it's a name that Stephanie Link and I kicked around again. We've been cursed in it so we didn't go back in it.

Debra Borchardt: What's your bottom line number on Alcoa?

Jim Cramer: I hope they break even.

Debra Borchardt: But what's the entry point?

Jim Cramer: After they report and numbers come down, I think I want to buy.

Debra Borchardt: But you're going to wait?

Jim Cramer: Yes.

Debra Borchardt: Okay.

--Written by Debra Borchardt in New York.