Financial Funds Come Bouncing Back
Can financials continue rallying? Probably. The valuations remain modest and the ongoing economic recovery should boost profits. To participate, consider a financial fund. Top choices include Hennessy Large Cap Financial (HLFNX) , Hennessy Small Cap Financial (HSFNX) and T. Rowe Price Financial Services (PRISX) . To hold a diversified fund with a big financial stake, consider Akre Focus (AKRIX) .
Since they were clobbered during the turmoil of 2008, financial stocks have been recovering. During the past year, the average financial mutual fund returned 24.7%, surpassing the S&P 500 by 8 percentage points, according to Morningstar. The shares have rebounded as companies have improved their balance sheets, cutting costs and reducing their debt.
As lending standards have tightened, default rates have declined. Much of the credit for the revival must go to the rebound in housing. With house prices rising, banks are suffering from fewer bad loans.
"As the housing numbers have improved, the multiples on the bank stocks have increased," says Hennessy portfolio manager David Ellison.
Ellison likes the big Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley. He says the banks stand to benefit from the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. Under the program, the Fed is buying $40 billion of mortgages a month. The big banks earn hefty fees by selling mortgages to the Fed.
Despite the improving picture, the market has not yet appreciated how strong earnings growth will be, says Ellison. The big banks trade at 10 times next year's earnings. That is a modest price at a time when the S&P 500 trades at 14 time earnings.
"The stocks look very cheap based on their book values," says Ellison.
To hold a cross section of blue chips, consider T. Rowe Price Financial Services. Holdings include US Bancorp (USB) and Wells Fargo. During the past five years, the fund returned 0.6% annually and outdid 74% of competitors. During the financial crisis, the fund sank hard. But because of its emphasis on blue chips, T. Rowe Price outdid most peers in the turmoil of 2008.
A relatively steady choice is Hennessy Small Cap Financial. Portfolio manager David Ellison can hold cash when markets collapse. A big cash stake helped him limit losses in the financial crisis. During the past 15 years, the fund returned 7.8% annually, ranking as the top performer in the category.
A Hennessy holding is Flagstar Bancorp (FBC) , a Michigan institution that was saddled with nonperforming loans during the financial crisis. Ellison says the balance sheet is improving as housing markets recover. The stock sells for around $19, a cheap price for a company that should earn $4 a share in the next year, Ellison says.