Is David Einhorn's Secret 'Fiscal Cliff' Bet Blowing Up?
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Hedge fund manager David Einhorn has grabbed headlines for suing tech darling Apple(AAPL) , getting burned on coffee maker Green Mountain Coffee Roasters(GMCR) after a public feud and betting the wrong way on high-flying chipmaker Marvell Technologies(MRVL) .
But it's what Einhorn isn't saying that may be most relevant to his investors in 2013.
For instance, Einhorn has kept a long-held short trade in ratings agency Moody's(MCO) on the down low in recent days, in spite of renewed scrutiny on the legitimacy of AAA ratings ascribed to risky debts prior to the crisis and his confirmation of the bearish bet in October.
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Meanwhile, after referring to a short trade against asphalt and concrete producer Martin Marietta(MLM) at an investor conference in May, Einhorn's been silent on the company's near 40% gain since he first unveiled the trade.
In fact, at that conference -- called Ira Sohn -- Einhorn surprised investors by disclosing a short trade against Martin Marietta instead of a rumored bet against supplements seller Herbalife(HLF) , which Einhorn confirmed Thursday he has no position in.
The Ira Sohn conference was also where Einhorn first referred to the prospect of a $4 to $6 a share preferred dividend paid by Apple, which he continues to press.
But what about Martin Marietta?
Despite comments from Einhorn in May that the company's earnings would fall off a "fiscal cliff" as government stimulus spending on road construction faded and budget austerity measures kicked in, the company has seen earnings and revenue stabilize.
With the company forecast to report growing year-over-year earnings when it discloses fourth-quarter and full-year results this week, Einhorn's short trade may be suffering from an unanticipated recovery in construction and housing markets just as government spending -- the company's largest earnings stream -- faces headwinds.