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SiriusXM Royalty Costs Won't Spike, or Its Stock

Tickers in this article: P SIRI

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Shares SiriusXM (SIRI) surged roughly 7% in late trading on Friday after the music industry's Copyright Royalty Board issued a smaller than expected judgment on music royalty costs for the satellite radio giant.

However, Friday's share gains may be overdone, according to an industry analyst. SiriusXM won't see its music royalty costs spike, but that wasn't justification for the late Friday stock surge, Evercore Partners analyst Bryan Kraft wrote in a note to clients.

Near the market close on Friday, the CRB said that it will increase the rate it charges SiriusXM to broadcast music on its premium satellite radio network. In 2013, the rate will rise to 9% of SiriusXM's total revenue from 8% in 2012, and that rate will increase by 50 basis points a year through 2017, when royalty rates will hit 11% of revenue.

According to Evercore's Kraft the rate increase was larger than expected, but the decision was a positive for SiriusXM's stock given the gradual approach to those increases.

"We view the outcome as positive for the company and the stock because: (1) the increases in the rate remain gradual, enabling SIRI to continue to pass through music royalties on customers' bills; and (2) the uncertainty has now been removed," wrote Kraft, in the client note. The greater than expected 50 basis point step up will only hit SiriusXM's earnings by $16 million, an 'inconsequential' cost according to Kraft.

While the CRB decision won't dampen Kraft's bullish outlook for SiriusXM shares - the analyst maintains a 'buy' rating and $3.30 price target - it also didn't warrant the 7% Friday rally. " We would not be surprised to see the stock give back some of Friday's gain on Monday," wrote Kraft after assessing SiriusXM's 20 cent Friday rise in relation to the rate decision's impact on earnings.

Kraft continues to see SiriusXM as a story of top and bottom line revenue growth, warranting increasing price multiples that have helped to push the company's shares up over 50% in 2012.

The CRB decision does make SiriusXM's costs quantifiable amid an otherwise improving revenue and profit picture for the satellite radio giant. In contrast, streaming music services such as Pandora (P) still battle uncertain costs to go with a muddled profitability picture.

Earlier in December, Pandora shares flopped after reporting weaker than expected earnings .

While Pandora struggles to generate the subscription and ad revenue to justify its music costs, SiriusXM has benefited from a strong new and used car market in 2012, which has driven 2012 subscriber growth and helps to differentiate the service from competitors.

At the UBS Global Media Conference in early December, SiriusXM chief financial officer David Frear highlighted that the company's improving financial picture hinges on how its non-music offerings are driving subscription growth, primarily in new and used automobiles. Meanwhile, the company's moat around auto subscribers is growing, as car makers continue to post record sales figures.