2013 Predictions: S&P 500 Plunges, Gold Soars
NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Blackstone's (BX) Byron Wien has never been one to shy away from predictions. The Vice Chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners has produced his 2013 list, including predictions on gold, oil, and everyone's favorite stock, Apple (AAPL) .
Among some of the more notable macro calls Wien makes are concerns over oil prices, as he believes the price of West Texas Intermediate could plunge on new rules out of Washington. Wien is also bullish on Chinese stocks, as the new government there seems determined to weed out corruption and encourage economic growth.
He's also bullish on gold, saying it could reach as high as $1,900 per ounce on macro uncertainties and continued currency debasement from central banks around the world.
Below is the entire list of Wien's ten surprises for 2013.
"1. Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening. Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention.
2. A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor's 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors. The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment.
3. Financial stocks have a rough time, reversing the gains of 2012. Intense competition in commercial and investment banking, together with low trading volumes, puts pressure on profits. Layoffs continue and compensation erodes further. Regulation increases and lawsuits persist as an industry burden.
4. In a surprise reversal the Democrats sponsor a vigorous program to make the United States independent of Middle East oil imports before 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude falls to $70 a barrel. The Administration proposes easing restrictions on hydraulic fracking for oil and gas in less populated areas and allowing more drilling on Federal land. They see energy production, infrastructure and housing as the key job creators in the 2013 economy.
5. In a surprise reversal the Republicans make a major effort to become leaders in immigration policy. They sponsor a bill that paves the way for illegal immigrants to apply for citizenship if they have lived in the United States for a decade, have no criminal record, have a high school education or have served in the military, and can pass an English proficiency test. Their goal for 2016 is to win the Hispanic vote, which they believe has a naturally conservative orientation and which put the Democrats over the top in 2012.