Betting on the Boom in Natural Gas
The bulls say that gas prices have started to rise in recent months and more gains are likely. But even the optimists concede that it will take time for prices to recover fully. "I don't know what prices will be in one year, but five years from now we will be happy that we bought these stocks," says Kent Croft, portfolio manager of Croft Value.
Don't expect to see a crowd of funds rushing to the gas stocks any time soon. Not many fund managers are willing to wait several years for stocks to climb. But Croft is unusually patient, keeping his average holding for more than five years. The low-turnover strategy has worked. During the past ten years, the fund has returned 9.1% annually, outdoing 96% of large blend funds, according to Morningstar.
The gas stocks suit Croft's taste because the industry's long-term future looks so much brighter than the present situation. He says that gas prices sank because of dramatic shifts in supply and demand. During the financial crisis, demand sank as manufacturers and utilities burned less gas. At the same time, supplies spurted as new fracking technologies enabled producers to deliver more gas.
Croft says demand will grow substantially in coming years. Because gas causes less pollution and is cheaper than oil, chemical manufacturers are building new gas-fired plants. Power companies are shifting from coal to gas.Gas could also become more popular as cheap fuel for vehicles. Already 15% of the country's municipal fleets of buses and trash collection trucks have engines that can run on gas. Commercial vehicles have been slow to shift because few service stations provide natural gas. But now several gas companies have decided to invest hundreds of millions of dollars to provide natural gas fuel stations at truck stops.
Exports could provide a big new source of demand. Up till now not much gas has been shipped abroad because the supplies must first be converted to liquefied natural gas, a process that requires expensive infrastructure. Now companies are racing to build LNG facilities that could serve growing markets in Japan and Europe. A new plant in Canada should begin shipping supplies to Asian customers in 2015, and eight projects in the U.S. are currently seeking government approvals.
Croft's holdings include Ultra Petroleum (UPL) , which produces gas in the rich Marcellus Shale field of Pennsylvania. The company is a low-cost producer, an important advantage in the current environment. "Natural gas producers are not making a lot of money now, but the most efficient companies can remain profitable at low prices," says Croft.