Wal-Mart Is Not Target
This is an exciting week, filled with market-moving data and some really big, large-cap companies stepping into the earnings confessional. Two retailers that report on Thursday, November 15, are as different as their market-cap sizes.
Target wants to create a different shopping experience than Wal-Mart. When you walk into a Target store you sense many of those differences. TGT wants customers to feel a more qualitative ambiance than walking into a warehouse such as Costco (COST) or a relatively bland "Everyday Low Price" Wal-Mart store.
Target is targeting a slightly more sophisticated consumer who wants bargain prices but also seeks sensory pleasures when they walk into the store. That's one reason our local TGT has a Starbucks inside the store entrance, and as I reported recently, shoppers love that aromatic and delicious steaming-hot liquid caffeine.
The market cap for Target is very different as well. TGT's market cap is a little over $41 billion, which certainly qualifies it as "large cap." Yet compared to WMT's gargantuan $242 billion market cap, well, TGT is a porpoise and WMT is at least a Humpback Whale.
Investors are excited about the companies' earnings reports as they're bellwethers of both big retailers-for-the-masses as well as harbingers concerning the all-important holiday shopping season, which officially doesn't begin until the day after Thanksgiving. We all know it has already begun this year.
Analysts have an average estimate earnings-per-share expectation for WMT at around $1.07, which would represent an 11% increase in the same year-ago quarter. They're also looking for revenue to come in at nearly $115 billion for the quarter. That would be a year-over-year increase of around 4.3%.
Might WMT surprise on the upside or the downside? The answer is unequivocally a tentative "yes," but no one is sticking their neck out and making any firm predictions. You know what happens to "turkeys" this time of year when they stick their necks out?
The average EPS estimate among analysts for TGT is 78 cents, which is slightly below last year's 82 cents. Anything above 78 cents should help move TGT's stock price to the upside. Analysts' average estimate concerning quarterly revenue is $16.93 billion, slightly ahead of last year's $16.40 billion.
It will be very interesting to see if the wallop felt by super-storm Sandy will impact these numbers positively or negatively. If either company misses, they can always blame Sandy, the elections, or even the price of gasoline, which, thanks to Sandy, is down significantly in the past two weeks.