Why I Will Buy a MacBook, But Not Apple's Stock
Interestingly, many AAPL bulls have called the last year or two frustrating. That's remarkable, considering the 129% two-year and 78% one-year returns the stock produced. Investors, particularly the self-entitled and greedy ones, still complain because, as they see it, AAPL is pathetically undervalued. Despite the somewhat irritating pullbacks and, by traditional standards, low valuation, AAPL trends high over time.
And, certainly, that's what every Wall Street analyst and AAPL bull on Earth expects to see happen this time.
The stock peaked at $644 in April. It barely sniffed the $600 level once we moved into May. It's off about 11% from that intraday high. We may have entered a new era in which what everybody seems to think will (and should) happen no longer does. There's no such thing as destiny in the stock market.
No doubt about it -- Apple is the best company in the world. However, when you're on top, it becomes a whole 'nother ball game. It's not like it matters much in general, but, in AAPL's case, valuation means very little, if anything. Don't hang your hat on AAPL's stock price inevitably coming in line with its fair and righteous value.
Apple can announce all of the amazing things it announced on Monday at WWDC. It can woo the geeks. It can woo people like me. (I might actually end up buying a MacBook Pro with Retina Display before you finish reading this.)
It can do awesome things with Siri. It can outclass what amounts to the ongoing disappointments at Google(GOOG) and the rest of the inferior competition, (save, maybe, Microsoft(MSFT) ). It can effectively keep companies such as Yelp(YELP) and OpenTable(OPEN) alive. It can boost the fortunes of Facebook(FB) and Twitter by saying nice things and including them in its plans.
It can send you (and me) into a state of truly euphoric excitement. As I was waiting for the Apple Store to reopen online, I felt like I was hitting refresh at the Ticketmaster Web site ahead of a Springsteen concert. It's weird. I was nervous and jittery. My chest felt "fluttery." That's all fine and good, but, as an investor, it's at that point you need to, at the very least, reconsider plans to buy the stock of a company that plays with your emotions.