All That Excitement Over BlackBerry 10 Was Really Dumb
How else can you explain this market's irrationality?
And I'm not talking about Amazon.com (AMZN) , Facebook (FB) and Netflix (NFLX) UP, Apple (AAPL) DOWN. Whether you think these battleground stocks should be going in the directions they are or not, credible bull cases support AMZN, FB and NFLX optimism and AAPL pessimism.
It's easy for me to wrap my head around the AMZN bull case ; maybe not so much for you, but that doesn't mean you should discount my argument. As difficult as it is for me to take my own prediction of NFLX to $300 seriously, I still see the logic that underlies decisions to buy the stock in the face of what I consider an uphill climb .
An investor goes into a long or short play on all four names with, by and large, sound logic. If this was debate class, I could take either side of the investment (not talking about a trade here) and make the case for or against AMZN, FB, NFLX and AAPL. You're going to get some of these calls wrong. That's expected. Ultimately, the way you manage your overall portfolio dictates how badly a miss or two hurts.
With that said, there's no logic underlying some of the moves we have seen in other stocks that moved higher in 2013. You simply cannot make a credible case for buying these dogs, Dell (DELL) . Radio Shack (RSH) . Best Buy (BBY) and the artist formerly known as Research in Motion (RIMM) .
I could go on all day about all four companies, but I must focus on one. Like the others, there's no reason why RIMM should have run at all, let alone as much as it did.
I need to understand how these runs happen. And if they happen the way I think they do, I'm more depressed than I was the other day about Apple .
So people buy these types of stocks on some whiff of false optimism. With Dell and Best Buy, you get long for no other reason than playing the prospects of a buyout. Same with Radio Shack, plus when such a well-known name gets that "cheap," people feel compelled to act on the it can't go much lower impulse. All awful reasons to make an investment, even if you're just taking the shares for a quick ride.
RIM's run was all about BlackBerry 10-related hype. We see the phones. They're not horrible -- BlackBerries, even after the brand fell behind, became uncool and imploded, never are. But they're certainly nothing to write home about.