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LinkedIn Poised to Drop?

Written by: Chris Vermeulen, Contributor 07/27/12 - 2:00 PM EDT
Tickers in this article: ZNGA FB LNKD
NEW YORK (TheGoldAndOilGuy.com) -- This week Zynga(ZNGA) tanked, dragging down Facebook(FB) with it.

There's been a lot of hype regarding everything social, but not exactly a lot of follow through regarding earnings.

Recently, a new member of our team here at TTT, Brennan Basnicki, put out a fundamental piece on LinkedIn(LNKD) that I think merits a good readover as it is applicable to many of the high-flying tech stocks we've seen get absolutely crushed lately.

Further, if we look at some more of the fundamentals and technical indicators I think we may have found a prime shorting candidate.

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On the fundamental side:

  • A P/E roughly at 700. This is astronomical. While not alone a reason to short a stock, it definitely has to raise caution to the long side.
  • Heavy insider selling: Management has sold more than 20% of their pre-IPO ownership while the early venture capital firms have already exited half their position.
  • Net profit margins very low, ranging between 4% and -1% over the last five quarters.
  • Rising sales, general, and administrative costs with decreasing growth in revenue.

    • On the technical side:

  • This is an interesting one. We currently see an extended uptrend that entered a consolidation period over the last three months. While a consolidation after an uptrend is typically a continuation pattern, a closer examination leads me to believe that LinkedIn will, or already has begun, to breakout to the downside.
  • There is also a very clear double top formed that will act as resistance. The one top above it failed to hold, which often means a reversal is likely to follow.
  • Moving averages are all aligning in the same direction: down.

  • We can also take the perspective that the recent price action has been a bear flag, not so unlike the rest of the equity markets. Notice the recent rise in price on lower volume, followed by an increase in volume over the last two days accompanied by lower prices. Clear signs that a breakout may be starting.
  • Further, take a look at the heavy selling on the first significant pullback in May. This looks to be a large distribution and likely some of the insiders taking advantage of the loft stock price.