My 'Fast Money Halftime Report' Recap
NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Michelle Caruso-Cabrera filled in for Scott Wapner in our "Fast Money Halftime Report" discussion yesterday.
Monday's "Fast" conversation revolved around financials -- namely, how to invest in the sector.
My variant (more bullish) view is that a multiyear and durable U.S. housing recovery is ahead of us and that the banks most exposed to the domestic residential real estate markets represent the best way to play this eventuality.
I am very optimistic with regard to the outlook for the residential real estate markets in the U.S. -- the scope and duration of the recovery will surprise many in the years ahead.
- Housing affordability is at a near-record high.
- New production is extremely low relative to household formation and demographic trends, so a lot of pent-up demand will be unleashed.
- The economics of home ownership has tilted away from renting.
- Although there was some hesitation in the recent numbers, the U.S. jobs market is making a decisively positive turn.
- Mortgage rates are at generational lows.
- Housing surveys are slowly improving as is consumer confidence.
I also see interest rates rising, which is a good thing for banks, because the industry has an imbalance of rate-sensitive assets over rate-sensitive liabilities, meaning that net interest margins will be rising over time.