Why Are You Sitting in Cash?
Unfortunately, many have missed the doubling of the market since 2009 and, more recently, the 35% run-up from October of last year, until April of this year. As I watch the market on a daily basis, I see many of my biggest positions continuing to hit new highs. Additionally, I see fresh, new breakouts on very high-quality stocks. Yet, I hear it all of the time: "I am sitting in cash!"
This thinking makes little sense to me. Oh, I know there is a big fat Greek vote coming up this weekend. I too, have been watching the latest jobs reports on our domestic economy. Yes, I see the rising bond yields in Spain, and the plunging Euro. I know all about the sell-off in oil caused by our rising dollar. Let's not forget that China is slowing down and the fact that the emerging markets are submerging.
The indices are barely in the green for the year and money continues to gush into the bond market and the U.S. dollar. This is where the smart money is going, right? Heck, bonds have got to be a great deal here. They are offering 1.6% per year for the next 10 years. Of course, if interest rates start to tick higher, that return will be wiped out real fast.
I was asked by Pimm Foxx on Bloomberg radio the other day, "why not sell everything and buy gold?" I replied that gold does not do very well when the dollar is rising like it is now. In addition to this, gold has been going sideways since last summer. In the meantime, lots of other things are screaming higher. Why have my money sitting in gold while I am missing these opportunities?
Yes, I know all about the doomsday prophets. I hear them all of the time. The dollar is going to crash and inflation will skyrocket! That warning may indeed came come true at some point down the road, if we don't reverse the course we are on.
That investment scenario has not been very profitable over the last year, however. Gold, measured by the SPDR Gold Shares(GLD) , is only up 6.3% over the last 12 months while the dollar, measured by the PowerShares U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund(UUP) , has been going up ever since Quantitative Easing began.