QE Fatigue Plagues Transports, May Be Contagious
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- It seems like the Federal Reserve is all in with QE3 as this version of money printing is open-ended -- $40 billion a month of purchases of mortgage-backed securities as far as the eye can see. After big gains in gold, crude oil and equities last Thursday and Friday, the U.S. capital markets are feeling what I will call the early stages of "QE Fatigue."
U.S. Treasury yields rose last week after QE3 was announced with the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note rising to 1.894% last Friday. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 30-year bond rose to 3.118% on Monday, which made equities less undervalued and more overvalued.
Comex gold traded as high as $1781.80 on Wednesday shy of my quarterly risky level at $1805.90, after the euro versus the dollar tested 1.3171 on Monday.
Meanwhile, Nymex crude oil traded above $100 per barrel to $100.42 last Friday then by Wednesday was below my monthly value level, now a pivot at $93.30, as weak demand and a huge rise in inventories trumped QE3 speculation and continued Mid-East tensions. My monthly value level became a pivot and was tested pre-market this morning after Thursday's low at $90.66.
In the equity markets, Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq set new multi-year highs on Friday with the Russell 2000 only .07 away from testing its all time high at 868.57, which was set in May 2011.
Dow Transports traded up into last Friday then reality set in this week. Earnings warnings from FedEx(FDX) and Norfolk Southern(NSC) pushed transports back below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Transports clearly caught "QE Fatigue" upon the realization that the U.S. economy was weakening and that QE3 may not be the correct prescription. Next week we will find out how contagious QE Fatigue becomes.
Higher stock prices and the higher 30-year bond yield made stocks less undervalued and more overvalued. On Monday www.ValueEngine.com showed that 45.7% of all stocks were undervalued versus 81.0% at the June 4 market low. Fifteen of 16 sectors became overvalued; Utilities by 18.5%, Retail-Wholesale by 15.7%, Finance by 15.6%, Medical by 14.9%, Consumer Staples by 14.5%, Construction by 12.5%, and Computer and Technology 11.9%. I covered four of these sectors in my stories this week.
Sept. 17: Utilities Remain Most Overvalued Sector