Against the Spread: 2012 NFL Super Bowl XLVI Pick
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- It all comes down to this.
From one perspective, I'm in a pretty good position. Even if I pick wrong this week, I will finish the playoffs with a winning record. My playoff record is a decent 6-4, a nice turnaround after going 1-3 in the Divisional round. But that's in the past. It's time for Super Bowl XLVI, a rematch between my hometown New England Patriots and the New York Giants.
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I'm actually in New York this week for work typing this, being constantly reminded of the Giants victory parade up Broadway four years ago, when they defeated the Patriots despite being double-digit underdogs in Super Bowl XLII. As a Patriots fan living in a different city, it was tough to stomach.
I am much more worried this year than I was four years ago. Even though the Patriots are favored in this game by only a field goal, nearly everyone I've heard from or read or talked to is picking the Giants to not only cover but to win outright. As it turns out, so much is different from just four short years ago.
"When these two teams met in Super Bowl XLII, New England's vaunted offense 'featured' Kyle Brady and Ben Watson as its tight ends," says Paul Bessire, the general manager and creator of the Web site PredictionMachine.com. His model is a quantitative way to break down NFL games as it simulates each contest 50,000 times to come up with a pick against the spread.
"New York's offense included Amani Toomer, Plaxico Burress, Steve Smith and David Tyree at the wide receiver position," Bessire adds. "These are two very different teams." This is the ninth year Bessire has used his model to pick the Super Bowl result against the spread. He's undefeated thus far.
Bessire points out that this is the seventh Super Bowl all-time with exactly a 3-point line, the first since the Giants and Baltimore Ravens played more than a decade ago. In those previous six matchups with a line of 3 points, none resulted in a push.
Now, before we get to my pick against the spread for Super Bowl XLVI, let's first take a look at some of the funniest and most intriguing prop bets for the big game. 
Player/Team Prop Bets
Proposition bets are always a fun way for casual gamblers to play the Super Bowl, much like office Super Bowl pools. But as it turns out, there is quite a lot of value to be had in many of the hundreds of prop bets.
"I've been saying all week that if you like the Giants and you didn't get +3.5 on the game, there are other ways to play the game," Bryan Leonard, a professional sports handicapper with Pregame.com who is also part of the Tuesday Group, a collection of professional bettors in Las Vegas who get together to handicap the games each week.
With that, let's take a look at some of the more interesting player and team prop bets. All lines are provided by Bessire, courtesy of Bovado.
Tom Brady MVP 7/5
Eli Manning MVP 9/4
New York Giants Score First -125
Aaron Hernandez Rushes 2.5 times, +100/-130
Hakeem Nicks Receiving Yards 85.5, -125/-105
Eli Manning Rushing 3.5 yards, -125/-105
Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards 80.5, -125/-105
Lawrence Tynes Field Goals Made 1.5, +100/-130
Chad Ochocinco Receiving Yards 9.5, -115/-115
Longest Touchdown 49.5 yards, -115/-115
Prediction Machine's Bessire finds value in several of the prop bets listed above, which is certainly no definitive list. Among the one he prefers, he said he likes the under on the longest touchdown, noting that the Patriots have not given up a single touchdown over that length this season.
Bessire also likes the under for Eli Manning's rushing yards. "He could fall forward for that amount on any given play, but I like it because when you look at the numbers, in 13 of 19 games he's had with fewer than 3 yards," he says. "In 9 of the 19 he's ended the game with negative rushing yards."
Bessire also likes the over for Tynes field goals as the Patriots don't have a great defense overall but it's one that hunkers down in the road zone.
While the prop bets for Tom Brady don't have much value, Bessire says he's "fascinated in Aaron Hernandez. We're projecting 4 carries for 22 yards. That's double what the player prop is. He's a dynamic player. We love the over on carries."
And last, Bessire likes the prop bet for the Giants to score first at only -125. He notes the Patriots have deferred every time they won the coin toss since Brady was injured several years ago. "The Giants are far more likely to receive the ball than to defer," he says.
Pregame's Leonard, meanwhile, says that he took advantage of prop bets earlier in the week before the lines moved, although he says there still is value in the kicking props. He says it appears oddsmakers simply took the averages from the regular season without taking account the fact that the Super Bowl will be played in a dome in Indianapolis.
"We saw 76% of the kickoffs in this dome went as touchbacks, so there's some value there," Leonard says, adding that he got +175 on the Giants kicking a touchback. For reference, he noted that the Giants had touchbacks 5 out of the 6 times they kicked off in the Cowboys new stadium. 
Funniest/Interesting Prop Bets
Some of the more interesting prop bets unfortunately aren't available at Vegas but can be bet on using some of the offshore or online books. Unlike figuring out which player will rush or catch for a number of years, there is no way to accurately predict these.
That said, these type of prop bets have a goofy, fun quality and can be attractive wagers for some. These lines are provided by Bessire, courtesy of Bovado.
Over/Under Length of National Anthem (1:34)
Coin Flip (even)
Kelly Clarkson's Outfit (NFL/non-NFL)
Madonna's Hair Color (Blonde)
Peyton Manning Shown 3.5 times, -130/-110
Giselle Bundchen Shown 0.5 times, -150/-110
Andrew Luck Mentioned 1 time, -110/-130
While Bessire models games more than he does some of these funnier prop bets, he's still put in some time examining the trends as he hunts for value. Among his favorite picks from this group, he likes Kelly Clarkson to go over the 1 minute 34 second mark with her rendition of the National Anthem.
Of course, bettors will recall that last year, Christina Aguilera caused a brouhaha at sportsbooks when she flubbed the lyrics to the National Anthem, making it tougher to get an accurate read on the length of her version. Bessire, though, says there's still some value in going with the over with Clarkson, as well as betting she's wearing non-NFL garb.
"She's had 7 public appearances, 6 by herself," he says. "In the one she sang with Seal, she went 2:01. In the others, she's been around 1:30 to 1:34. I actually like this one to go over. A singer expands their National Anthem performance by about 7 seconds during the Super Bowl."
Bessire also says it's nearly a lock that Madonna performs during the halftime show with blonde hair. He also likes another bet getting little publicity: Whether Madonna holds a microphone or wears a headset.
"The underdog pick of her performance is her coming out with a microphone. It's +200 she uses a microphone," he says. "We all remember her as a headset singer, but she's adapted to it. She's been using it a lot more often recently. There's a lot of value there." 
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-3)
Alright, enough with the appetizers. Let's get to the main course.
There's so much history between these two teams that has been rehashed enough in the press over the past two excruciatingly long weeks, so I'll skip all of that. Let's just get down to the nitty gritty of the game.
According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hotel posted the Patriots as 3-point favorites originally, with both sides costing you $110 to win $100. It appears so much money came in on the Giants that oddsmakers had to juice the sides. Taking the Patriots and laying the 3 points is now even money, while taking the underdog Giants and the 3 points will cost you $120 to win $100.
Some casinos have gotten so much Giants money, it appears, that they have trimmed the line to Patriots -2.5, which is significant as it takes a lot to move off of a key number like 3.
One of the reasons some bettors think the Giants should actually be favored is because this team reminds so many, like Bessire, of the Packers team that made it to the Super Bowl and won the Championship last year.
"The types of team are pretty similar," Bessire says. "I've been equating this year's Giants to the Packers from last year. They made the surge at the end with an easy schedule at the start and a tough finish. They are improving in the running game. It's really eerie with how it lines up perfectly with the Packers."
Bessire says his model has the Giants not only covering but winning outright against the Patriots. "There is a 6% the Pats win but the Giants still cover," Bessire says of the small chance of that scenario playing out, according to his model.
So why does Bessire's Prediction Machine have the Giants winning it all? The big difference between both teams, he notes, is New York's pass offense against New England's pass defense.
"New England really struggles against teams with above average quarterbacks," Bessire says. "Note that Hakeem Nicks, an elite level receiver for the Giants, did not play in New York's win over New England earlier this season."
Bessire also says the Giants edge the Patriots on the other side of the ball in the passing game, which should ultimately be the difference in this game. "The Patriots clearly struggle, especially relative to public perception/the line, against elite pass defenses," he says.
Not everyone is so convinced about the outcome of this game. Pregame's Leonard says he's probably going to pass on playing this game.
"A lot of the public is on the Giants. People can't believe the Giants aren't favored. Most of the handicappers are on the Giants," he says, noting that makes him nervous about picking the underdog.
Leonard thinks the line could close at Patriots -2. "At worst, I'll lay -130 on the moneyline with New England. For the most part, the line is correct," he says.
The Pick: Patriots -3. I don't believe in fate or anything like that. But as ESPN's Bill Simmons has noted, there's something poetic about the Patriots trouncing the Broncos, a team they've never beaten in the playoffs, only to come back a week later and win against a Ravens team that embarrassed them in the playoffs a few years ago.
Now, the Patriots have the chance to play the Giants, who beat them in a shocking upset four years ago. And they have the chance to do it in Indianapolis, the home field of Peyton Manning, one of the Patriots' biggest rivals.
I know the Patriots certainly have their weaknesses on defense, and it's worrisome that Gronkowski could be limited due to his high ankle sprain. I also know the Giants have been a hot team lately, peaking at the right time. But I also remember a Giants team that failed to play with any consistency all year. In picking the Giants as a 3-point underdog, one has to believe they can win outright, and I can't do that. If I only have to lay 3 points with the Patriots, the top offenses in the league, I'm doing it.
Before we go, I want to thank you all again for reading these NFL picks against the spread columns throughout the season. I have a blast typing them up, and I can only hope you were entertained each week as much as I was. Thank you and hopefully see you again in September.
-- Written by Robert Holmes in Boston.
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