Wall Street has been awaiting Twittermas for longer than a week now, like a kid anxious for Santa.
Twittermas is bringing presents. Nice ones. At a price of $26/share, the IPO should fetch Twitter
Now, is Twitter really worth more than Macy's
The idea is that the shares will leave the brokers who lined up early, like geeks outside a Mac store, and then go out to smaller investors at a premium. What happens after that is anyone's guess, and in some ways it doesn't matter, because the dealers will have all made their money by noon today.
According to the amended S-1 filed last month, Twitter brought in $422 million in the first nine months of the year, 106% ahead of last year's $205 million, and seems on-pace to approach $600 million, mostly from ads of various kinds. The cost of that revenue is listed at $154 million, just 36% of the total.
If there's an investment case for the stock, it's based on growth and margins. But even assuming it gets to that $600 million figure for the full year, which is doubtful, you're paying 30 times sales for that growth. It's just not an investor's price.
It's a speculator's price. What buyers hope is that this company can be another Tesla
Both Tesla and Twitter will have similar market caps this morning, with Tesla expecting twice Twitter's revenue, and a gross profit for the nine months of about $300 million, which is currently more-than consumed by selling and research expenses to leave a net loss.
Tesla stock owners are paying nine times its expected 2013 revenue, with no net income, while Twitter buyers are paying 30 times revenue with fat, fat margins. But both are really buying hope, and momentum, and the promise that someone out there will pay even more for their shares than they paid.