Jim Cramer's Best Blogs
NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he discussed:
- what the market impact will be from a failure to avert the fiscal cliff; and
- three stocks you shouldn't even consider buying.
Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.
This Isn't Like TARP
Posted at 7:46 a.m. EDT on Friday, Dec. 21
We're stuck with bad templates: TARP votes one and two and the Grand Bargain No Bargain moments of 2011.
These two Washington-orchestrated calamities caused the stock market to plummet each time, which then helped get a deal done.
Anyone who remembers the chaos after the failure of TARP to be passed knows that a 7% drop can occur when Congress chooses not to save the republic's banks.
The failure to raise the debt ceiling or come up with anything responsible led to a 19% fall until we got something that worked then, but isn't working now. We were paralyzed by the possible ratings agency downgrades and when we got one we thought, somehow, it was the end of the Earth.
Bonds did the opposite of what we thought and staged a remarkable rally. In that sense the selloff was about nothing.
I think that these two analogies, which are being trotted out quickly this morning after the failure of Plan B, simply don't work.
First, the hated TARP came at a time when there was a run on the banks. You could argue that your ATM might not even have worked if that didn't pass. That one was huge.
Second, the debt ceiling deal turned out not to matter, at least when it came to the ratings agencies. It was, alas, almost much ado about nothing. This time around it would not shock me if the president just raised it himself and accepted a court challenge. Bills need to be paid, that's the law. One law -- that the Congress has to approve a debt ceiling raise -- conflicts with another. The payments that the federal government must pay on time.
Now I am reading that this failure of Boehner's Plan B is the equivalent of both. You can almost take an average of the two and arrive at what we are supposed to be done, call it 12%. And yes, those are precisely the numbers I am being told we will fall.
Now there are several things at work here. First, I don't know anyone who really thought the GOP would ever vote for a tax increase, period. Grover Norquist has made most Republicans sign a pledge. They will, according to Norquist, be challenged in the primary by Tea Party members. The pledge will not be broken.