5 Bargain Stocks to Play the Resurgent U.S. Consumer
According to the Federal Reserve, consumers now use 15.7% of their monthly take home pay on mortgages, car loans and other forms of debt. You'd have to go back 30 years to find such a low reading. That's the result of a steady pay down in consumer debt over the past half decade.
And what do U.S. consumers do when they feel flush? They go shopping.
Spending at department stores has been on the mend for several years and should rise even higher in 2013, especially as the national unemployment rate continues to drift lower. Investors have already bid up the shares of national chain operators such as Target (TGT) and Macy's (M) , both of which trade just below their all-time highs.
In the year ahead, many investors may take note of the fact that retailer Kohl's (KSS) offers much better value. Shares have fallen more than 20% since mid-November, down to levels seen back in 2000. To put that in perspective, Kohl's base of sales and profits are now 100% higher than they were back in 2000.
Of course, it's been half a decade since Kohl's was able to generate double-digital annual sales gains, thanks to moribund consumer spending. And analysts are anticipating more of the same in the fiscal year that begins in February, as sales are forecasted to grow just 1%. Still, as the U.S. consumer strengthens, Kohls' pace of sales should start to rebound in tandem, perhaps back toward the 5% mark by next year.
Meanwhile, shares are remarkably inexpensive, at just four times likely (January) 2013 EBITDA, on an enterprise value basis. That's roughly half the EBITDA multiple this stock garnered when retail sales were more robust in the last decade.
The Great Recession of 2008 took a tremendous toll on lower-income consumers, as unemployment rates spiked sharply. And the spending slowdown was surely evidence at urban retailer CitiTrends (CTRN) , which saw same-store sales fall in each of the past four years.
Despite the weakness in same-store sales, management has still been pursuing a broader growth strategy, opening up new locations at a brisk clip. That helps explain why total sales were able to grow at a double-digit pace in fiscal (January) 2009, 2010 and 2011. Yet with an expanded base of stores (which now totals more than 500), a stabilization and eventual rebound in same-store sales should help this retailer to generate improving top and bottom-line results.