The New CEO at Sirius XM and Why It Matters
I spoke to TheStreet's navigator of the Stocks Under $10 world, David Peltier, about SIRI on Thursday. David summed up logical sentiment on company and stock:
There's a news vacuum at Sirius XM, with Mel Karmazin on the way out and little visibility about the company's future. I'd wait for a 5% to 7% decline before buying the stock. It would look attractive below $2.60.
Bingo, as usual from David.
There's no question about it -- near-term I missed on SIRI. That goes hand-in-hand with a short-term miss on Pandora (P) . But here's just another example of the importance of separating company from stock and, even more, short term from long term.
Although my cost basis on P was $10.19, I did not lose money on the stock when I liquidated my position just prior to joining TheStreet as a full-time employee ( TheStreet's corporate policy prohibits full-time employees from owning individual stocks), thanks to aggressive covered call writing.
Over the past six to 12 months, you could have generated considerable profits trading both SIRI and P on the long and/or short side. That takes a nimble trader. Outside of using options to hedge, that's not my bag. I prefer to consider names like SIRI and P within the context of long-term, dare I say, "buy-and-hold" -- grab more shares on the dips, implosions and noise investing.
That method, if well-timed, worked wonders on both stocks this year -- SIRI over longer time periods and P on quick, volatile, news- and rumor-driven gyrations.
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However, from the buy-as-an-investment perspective, I still like P long-term (one to three years out) and agree with Peltier that SIRI is a murky play.
With Liberty Media Corporation (LMCA) effectively calling the shots, SIRI and LMCA suits have a decision to make. It comes down to a core -- and very philosophical -- fundamental belief about the future of media, particularly radio. How do you view the world?
To this point, Mel Karmazin's more traditional view of radio has worked incredibly well. I'll take my crow with sea salt, a dash of red pepper and a sprig of cilantro: You cannot find a more successful example of the subscription model than Sirius/XM.
But that doesn't mean Mel's worldview wins and you stand still.