Biotech Stock Mailbag: More Amarin, MannKind, Orexigen
BOSTON ( TheStreet) -- Welcome to the end of a crazy week. Some of you are still dealing with the lack of electricity or damage caused by Hurricane Sandy, but here's hoping the weekend starts to bring some relief.
This week's Biotech Stock Mailbag is a continuation of Tuesday's live chat . About 1,200 readers posted 390 comments and questions on a thoughtful variety of biotech stocks. A great turnout and much appreciated. Unfortunately, it was only possible for me to publish and respond to a fraction of those questions. (I published or answered 17% of the comments and questions sent to me Tuesday, to be precise.)
Let's see if I can improve upon that response rate today.
Amarin (AMRN) was definitely the most queried biotech stock during Tuesday's live chat.
Patrick writes: "Amarin is a definite takeout, not sure if the price will be in the mid-20s, though."
Bravo33: "You mentioned in commentary back in June that getting NCE for Amarin was more important than its targeted patents. That seems counterintuitive. Do you still hold that belief?"
The five years of market exclusivity that comes with New Chemical Entity (NCE) status and long-lived patents are important. The mistake Amarin bulls made was the belief that the NCE decision (or lack thereof) was insignificant.
Without NCE, Amarin can expect genetic drug makers to quickly file a challenge to Vascepa patents. Generic makers could also try to develop a prescription-grade fish-oil compound that works around Amarin's patents. It's true that these things could happen even if FDA grants Vascepa NCE status, but the timeline is accelerated without NCE. That's why the current NCE mess/delay has weighed heavily on Amarin's stock price.
David comments: "The new AstraZeneca (AZN) CEO suspended the stock buyback. Many believe he won't waste much time in putting that cash to use to address the dearth of AstraZeneca's late-stage assets. Forest Labs (FRX) is seen by some as a fit, Amarin potentially as well. Thoughts?"
We've seen a lot of speculation linking Amarin to a number of Big Pharma suitors, not just AstraZeneca. I can't sit here and say a deal will never happen, but at the same time, I'll remind you that Big Pharma tends to buy assets with maximum market exclusivity and long-lived patents. Patent expirations and generic competition are the reasons many Big Pharma companies are in trouble today, so the last thing they'll do today is buy a drug with a high risk of generic challenge.
MP asks: "How do you know Amarin patents are not important for NCE decision?"
Because I've read the FDA regulations explaining how the NCE decision is made. The decision boils down to whether the active moiety of a drug has received FDA approval previously. Patents don't play a role in the decision: