Dirty Dozen Revisited
NEW YORK (Real Money) --
"It's judgment day, sinners! Come out, come out wherever you are!"
-- Maggot (Telly Savalas), The Dirty Dozen
In mid-April, I highlighted 12 events that could crater the U.S. stock market. This morning we revisit these possible disruptive influences.
Of course, in gauging the near-term market direction, the question we have to ask is where will these variables trend. (My updates and outlooks for each of the factors are in parentheses.)
I encourage you to plug in your own input to develop a market view.
I would note that five of the dirty dozen are moving in a positive direction, one is neutral, and six are moving negatively.
Much has been thrown at the stock market over the past three weeks, but I remain of the view that there is outstanding long-term value in equities today. Stocks are remarkably inexpensive relative to interest rates, private market values, returns on invested capital and corporate profits.
And the case for U.S. stocks, in particular, grows with each passing day.
As discussed in this morning's opening missive, I view many of the dirty dozen to likely move more positively in the months ahead:
- Politics over here. President Obama's Intrade odds of winning the presidential election in November exceeds 65% -- it now stands at 60.5% -- and growing evidence that the Democrats will lose control of the Senate. On Intrade, the probability of a Republican-controlled Senate now stands at 62% and at about 70% that the Republicans regain control of the House.