The Best of Kass
Among his posts this week, Kass discussed why he's holding on to his eBay position, why there are plenty of potential economic shocks on the horizon and why the recent declines in Apple shares are good, not bad, for the broader market.
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Not Selling eBay
Originally published on Thursday, April 19 at 8:21 a.m. EDT.
I have owned eBay(EBAY) since the depths of the stock market in 2009.
My cost is $11.64, and, despite the $5.50 share price move upward today, I am not selling a single share as the earnings (and the story) are that good.
At the time of publication, Kass was long EBAY.
No Shortage of Shocks
Originally published on Thursday, April 19 at 9:43 a.m. EDT.
No worries or cares
Regrets and mistakes
They are memories made.
Who would have known how bittersweet this would taste?
-- Adele, Someone Like You
The jobless claims number was poor relative to expectations. Moreover, the previous week's numbers were revised upward. At 380,000, claims are consistent with a slowing in monthly payroll growth to about 175,000 a month, though I expect next month's report to be closer to 150,000.
The excuse last week for the weak initial jobless claims numbers was Good Friday. Is there an excuse again this week? Can we sugarcoat the jobs report?
Well, look at the yield on the 10-year U.S. note (at 1.97%); it seems to be signaling that more economic weakness lies ahead. Indeed, several of the most recent economic releases are consistent with decelerating growth.
More tepid domestic economic growth raises the susceptibility of our fragile economy to shocks, and there is no shortage of potential shocks, as I related in my opening missive, "Dirty Dozen."
I remain of the view that fair market value for the S&P 500 is approximately 1360 compared to last night's close of 1385. This is not an especially attractive reward vs. risk (though not terrible either), and I still think we are range-bound between 1300 and 1430 as far as the eyes can see. This helps to explain why I move back and forth around market-neutral, buying the dips and selling the rips.
At the time of publication, Kass had no positions in securities mentioned.
Why Apple's Fall Is Healthy for the Markets
Originally published on Tuesday, April 17 at 7:40 a.m. EDT.