Apple's Doomed? More Than One Person Thinks So
... an Apple without Steve Jobs will likely lose its luster and enter a relatively slow decline to merely being good, not great.
Now, to be clear, other than expressing some ultimately unnecessary caution ahead of Apple's earnings report, I have been quite bullish in the near-term.
While I continue to gush over Apple's present dominance like everybody else does, I refuse to put on the blinders like many AAPL permabulls. It's nice to see somebody else thinking -- and saying -- the same thing, even if he does not give me a nod with a footnote.
Apple longs tend to discount this whole conversation as moot and meaningless because of Apple's present superior state. You have folks making comments like this on articles that explicitly reference the long-term:
It took a lot of loyalty to stay long AAPL this quarter but I did it.
Wow. That's the type of thing hockey fans are probably saying as they paint their faces before a big Game Seven. As a good friend of mine, who is an AAPL bull, mind you, told me Wednesday night, also on Twitter:
That's exactly what you need to check yourself on. Of course, today, you can call me all sorts of names for urging emotional restraint and a consideration of the long-term future. Clearly, it means little, materially, in the here and now.
Apple lowballs guidance. Apple crushes estimates. Apple goes up. Apple pulls back a little. Apple lowballs guidance. Apple crushes estimates. Apple goes up even higher.
We have, at a minimum, another four to six quarters of that to come. And I am not saying that it's not exciting and extraordinary. I am sided with the most bullish of bull cases.
There's a danger, however, in not looking ahead and considering worst-case scenarios. It's a psychological process. With every one of the aforementioned "rinse and repeat" cycles, some longs will find themselves getting even more "loyal" and emotional. As that internal fervor grows, all logic goes out the window. Making money, whether the long knows it or not, becomes secondary. It's all about being right, but, even more so, seeing the story through.