How Long Will Rovi Investors Suffer?
There is no hurry jumping on board with Rovi. Stocks dumping as a result of lowered guidance normally take a full two good earnings quarters to recover. Take your time and do your homework before allocating capital here. Look for the second break above $20 as the one that "sticks".
Pandora(P) (another earnings disappointer) also took more than two months in recovery to reach the gap down price. Pandora missed expectations in March. You can look at the chart and clearly see the trading day after reporting earnings. P data by YCharts
Pandora also continued to sell off for a month. If you're on the fence with Rovi or already reached your stop loss, know that the odds expect greater pain for shareholders before building again.
Pandora, like Rovi, will take at least six months to trade again at pre-gap pricing, if the next two reports are favorably received by investors. I love listening to Pandora, but I am not ready to invest just yet.
What's the best play with Rovi? There should be a very attractive trade coming up Friday or Monday. Near the end of the day if still trading lower, sell out of the money puts. Fear of continued losses tends to push portfolio insurance prices up dramatically. It's not one to get greedy with; hold on for a few days and as the implied volatility falls (hopefully with a nice dead cat bounce), exit out with a quick hit and run for profits.
Otherwise for longer term investors, the best play is to wait until we are closer to the next earnings release for an entry.
At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.