Markets Face Housing Data, French Elections in Coming Week
Although all anecdotal evidence suggests Apple will top its already lofty estimates, Sarhan notes that focusing on only the numbers leaves out a very important part of the equation, as the stock has fallen many times in the past after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings.
Google(GOOG) is a recent example of a stock that fell after reporting solid first-quarter numbers. The stock is now down more than $50 from when Google reported last Thursday.
Sarhan says that although Apple has been an incredibly strong performer, it could be only a matter of time before the shares top out, as many stocks do.
But Sarhan also notes there are countless examples of stocks topping out only to have their place taken by other stocks.
At some point, Apple buyers will be exhausted, says Richard Weeks, managing director and partner at HighTower's VWG Wealth Management. Apple is losing steam and decoupling from the market, with shares underperforming the major averages in recent weeks and during Friday's trading session.
"There's some concern that the stock in the short term is outrunning the fundamentals of the business," he says. "Apple is not a bellwether for entire tech business."
Weeks says the market overall has had a great run, so he wouldn't be surprised to see it pause and move sideways for a while.
It will be interesting, he says, to see whether the index options expirations that took place at the end of this week will have any influence on the markets by the middle of next week.
More than 50% of the time, there is a positive bias in the markets around the options expiration period, with a reversal back down to where things were before that period by about the second or third trading day of the following week, he notes.
Weeks will also be watching whether the U.S. 10-year Treasury's yield will continue to decline, in order to see where the "fear-based" money could be looking. So far this month, fears about Spain and the European market corresponded with a drop in the 10-year Treasury to less than 2% from about 2.3%. Weeks notes that while the short-term news on Spain has subsided, the problems aren't going away.
Jeff Sica, president and chief investment officer of SICA Wealth Management says he expects there to be a " clear divergence from what I'm hoping for and what I'm expecting" next week.