The Best of Kass
Among his posts this past week, Kass discussed the likelihood of another Fed easing, the ECB's rate cut and the prospects for big U.S. automakers.
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Originally published on Friday, July 6 at 5:51 p.m. EDT.
"One last thing."
-- Lt. Columbo
There was a silly column in The Wall Street Journal written by John Hilsenrath that came out in the last 20 minutes of trading that suggested that the Fed could move on more easing (sooner than later) after the weak jobs report.
Firstly, the bond market didn't believe it, nor did I, and I sold more short into it.
Second, if the story were real, the dollar would have dropped, and oil and gold would have risen -- they didn't.
Moreover, as I mentioned in today's opening missive, the effect of easing is waning with every tranche!
Position: Short SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY) common and calls.
ECB Lowers Rates
Originally published on Thursday, July 5 at 8:02 a.m. EDT.
As expected, the ECB has lowered its key rate by 25 basis points, to 75 basis points. The deposit rate was reduced to zero; the 25-basis-point drop was somewhat more than the consensus expected.
I don't expect risk markets to move much on this news, as most investors recognize that the lingering impact on financial deleveraging coupled with a sharp economic downturn in the eurozone will more than offset most of the benefits from easing (lowering rates and adding to asset purchases).