Will Apple's Shot at Google Hit RIM and Nokia Instead?

How long Microsoft will backstop Nokia is uncertain but given the success of the Lumina 9000, other makers are likely to step up into the now "free" Windows Mobile OS. Giving away "only" for free is cheaper for Microsoft than the current Nokia deal and means capturing a critical mass of users to keep the OS viable. Nokia may end up a victim of its own success if other hardware makers' desiring a platform without all the potential legal landmines Android comes with divest with Windows as an OS option.

RIM has taken so long to release BlackBerry10 that it shouldn't just have a better map than Android or Apple, it should drive my car and take care of the tip at the restaurant. In the time RIM has taken so far both Apple and Android will have released multiple upgrades.

Saving RIM from the trash bin is only the promise of an exceptional user experience with BB10, and in the meantime Google and Apple are fighting it out at a level at which RIM is no longer competing. Simply put, RIM has lost its mojo, and without it expects a product that is "good enough" to release but hardly much more. Of course, the delays could be the result of not allowing "good enough" and BB10 will delight and amaze. Unfortunately, years have gone by since that has happened in Waterloo.

Expect RIM and Nokia (and maybe Microsoft if it doesn't find others to build top-end phones people want to buy) to get squeezed like a fly between two sumo wrestlers at full speed.