Airline Analysts Turn Cautious
CHARLOTTE, N.C. (TheStreet) -- Two airline analysts turned cautious Wednesday, citing higher oil prices and tepid demand.
"The combination of geopolitical concerns and cautious economic optimism has lifted oil prices just as sluggish economic trends are catching up to the airlines," wrote JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker, in a report in which he reduced price targets for most carriers, even though he continues to expect that 2012 and 2013 will provide the industry with profits for the third and fourth consecutive years.
Dahlman Rose analyst Helane Becker wrote Wednesday that her view of the industry has diminished to cautious from optimistic.
"We believe the shares priced in a bottom for jet fuel costs," she wrote. "We believe load factors peaked and passenger revenue per available seat mile comparisons become more difficult as the year goes on. We advise investors to consider taking profits on strength."
Year to date as of Tuesday's close, the Amex Airline Index(XAL) is up 11%, while the S&P 500 is up 7.7%. US Airways(LCC) , up 120%, leads airline shares. Spirit(SAVE) has gained 37%. Delta(DAL) is up 17%. The other major carriers show gains in the single digits, although United(UAL) is up just 1%.
Meanwhile, PRASM growth is slowing. Industry PRASM rose 8.2% in 2011 and is up 7.3% year-to-date, said Becker, who anticipates it will slow further. Managements are guiding towards 2% to 3% growth in the third quarter.
United, the world's largest airline, is an area of concern, following a troubled second quarter.
"United's rising (costs), deteriorating margins and continued labor discord are of obvious, growing worry," Baker wrote. "Our own concern is that if management fails to more aggressively seize the controls, then UAL could -- over time -- step into the uninspiring role AMR once occupied as the industry laggard."
Although he has reduced expectations and price target for UAL, Baker continues to rate the carrier overweight. In fact, Baker remains optimistic about the industry due to "cost harmonization, return-focused managements, continued supply discipline and potential consolidation. "
"Our phones are still ringing and interest in the industry's renaissance is as high as ever," he wrote.