Cramer: A Jarring Wake-Up Call
NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Have we been had by the homebuilders? I want to say "no." I want to portray them merely as an over-optimistic lot. But if you've gone over the D.R. Horton
I don't think people have noticed how hard this company has been hit unless they've read through the conference call minutia and heard morsels like this: "We experienced some moderation in our net sales pace in the back of the quarter after mortgage rates began to increase sharply," said William Wheat, the chief financial officer. He continued: "While each individual home buyer responds differently to changes in mortgage rates, we typically see some short-term moderation in buyer activity during periods of mortgage rate volatility as potential buyers adjust to the changing rate environment."
In other words, folks got real sticker shock and decided to put their buys on hold. Or they canceled -- cancellations jumped from 19% last quarter to 24% this quarter. Who knows what the linearity of the quarter was or how badly the cancellations spiked in the last month?
Throughout the call was a grudging recognition that the spike mattered. That was even after management's repeated attempts to buck up the analysts with stories about affordability and great balance sheets of the homebuilders themselves -- as if we care about balance sheets when it comes to momentum stocks. That, by the way, is exactly what homebuilders are.
Typical was this interchange between an analyst, Adam Rudiger from Wells Fargo, and Donald Tomnitz, the CEO of Horton. "Don, this question falls under the category of trying to interpret your body language over the phone. You don't sound as quite as enthusiastic as you did last quarter. I didn't hear a lot of commentary as to your outlook."
Tomnitz responds with: "If I don't sound optimistic enough for you, I guess I didn't drink my Red Bull this morning." Then he proceeds to talk about how the company is and remains the largest builder and how its land position has never been stronger.