Cramer: The Real Source of This Ceaseless Bid
I think the report can be totally explained by our Fear Monger in Chief (i.e., President Obama), who scared the heck out of everyone as he talked about the massive job losses coming from sequester. I am sure that'll be the case, but the real impact here was similar to the U.S.'s pre-cliff non-dive, when the country's business was frozen.
Surely the president must have advisers telling him the way business people think, and how everything is about confidence -- confidence needed to make a bold expansion. But they seem to have no impact on him. That old "have to meet a payroll" dynamic eludes this president, and so it will be until we get another one. The president has total empathy for the downtrodden and unemployed, but he has no real handle, or holds even downright antipathy, for those who would hire them. That, as well as a blind spot for the hiring that oil-and-gas does, contribute mightily to the marginal hiring that could be done in this country.
The stock market, by all accounts, should have gone down big Friday. But it has trouble declining even though individual companies are poised to put in earnings issues, particularly among international tech and domestic-construction businesses, as we we'll likely see this week when earnings season begins.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published on Real Money on April 8. To see Jim Cramer's latest commentary as it's published, sign up for a free trial of Real Money.
However, if you strip out the individual earnings, you will see that the liquidity in the system -- and not individual earnings or government supports -- is the bid underneath that keeps giving.
Consider these sources of stock-market capital.
One: The Federal Reserve's amazingly low rates make it so that we simply can't invest in bonds or CDs and be responsible fiduciaries, either to ourselves or to pension plans. Every-day CDs from the halcyon days of the middle of the last decade, when rates were going higher, will come due -- and the dramatic decline in the rollover CDs should force that money into the stock market. Invariably I hear that this flow won't amount to a lot of money. Just dismiss these people out of hand; they are either short or ignorant.