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A Deep Post-Decline Analysis, Part 3

Tickers in this article: ABX AGU BAC BBY BTU CAT CF DVN EMC FCX JWN LXK MOS NEM PHM POT ROST URBN VLO

We've got a bunch of stocks that I would describe as "on the precipice" that could go either way. You could argue that I am being wishy-washy even labeling stocks this way, but recall that the Fed Chief does speak Tuesday and these stocks would be ripe to knock over if the testimony leaves you cold.

First up is Bank of America (BAC) . The stock of BofA does not look like the regionals. It is a sink or swim moment for the bank and if Bernanke delivers I would buy some. There are a ton of retail companies that report this week, so keep in mind that the following are all at levels that could precipitate a big win or a big loss, notably Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) , which has given you several weak reports of late, Nordstroms (JWN) , which, like Toll Brothers, I felt was poorly reported on as it says it will emphasize growth in Nordstrom's lower-priced outlets, which I thought just represented good business sense. Ross Stores (ROST) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) seem hanging on by a thread, yet Ross reported a pretty darned good quarter and Urban reported a stupendous one even as some analysts detected a weakness in the Anthropologie line.

Even as I mentioned the housing-related stocks as having nice charts, two stocks I am worried about, chart-wise, are Pulte (PHM) and Toll. I don't know what gets them moving again except Bernanke, who, if he says he had to keep rates low because of fears of sequester and higher gasoline, could ignite a next leg up for two very strong stocks over the last 18 months, even if they have been exceptionally weak as of the latest trading.

With the BP trial starting today you can understand how that one certainly fits on the precipice and you would need a settlement to define the upside. Devon (DVN) , on the other hand, seems poised for another breakdown. I guess anything's possible with that stock, but it did have about the worst quarter of any of the major oils when it reported last week.

Be careful of the refiners. Valero's (VLO) coming close to the edge and this group has had a remarkable run, perhaps too remarkable. I find it worrisome and it is the leader of the band.

Let's put in Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE) as players on the edge, two that have given weaker outlooks of late and may be hostage to China and a reduction in crop prices. Mosaic's (MOS) in the same boat and, to me, seems just too difficult to buy because the rest of the ag cohort is most definitely in the doghouse.

Which brings me to the final grouping, the Brokedown Palace stocks that don't just seem vulnerable to further downside but are in pathological downturns.

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