Netflix To $100, But Should You Buy The Stock?
Netflix (NFLX) appears poised to touch and eventually hold $100.
It's hitting strong resistance between $97.60 and just shy of its $97.80 intraday high but, who knows, by the time you read this it could have busted out.
Doesn't really matter because if it doesn't happen today, it will happen tomorrow or the next day or the day after that. It's inevitable.
What's driving this rise?
Maybe it's legislative success that, according to All Things D , went down the same way last year but never made its way out of Congress. Netflix is working to overturn an outdated law that prohibits the sharing of personal video rental histories online.
Or did Whitney Tilson go on television again, pumping his NFLX position with tantalizing notions of Netflix as a "value" play?
Just as the timing of when NFLX hits, holds and crosses $100 doesn't matter, neither does the reason. It will happen pretty much the way it did last year when NFLX topped out at a high of $304.79 only to crash to as low as $52 and change. $100. $200. Even $300. Nothing would surprise me.
As I explain in the above-linked Disney article, very few people actually understand the relationship between old and new media. For whatever reason, many otherwise intelligent people cannot wrap their heads around the argument that Disney made a horrible mistake, unless it merely took advantage of a Netflix it doesn't expect to be around come 2016 .
This misunderstanding makes the word of guys like Tilson and Netflix CEO Reed Hastings the word of God. They spin nice stories; the market and hack analysts who missed as badly on NFLX in 2011 as they did on Apple (AAPL) this week respond and drive the stock higher on no news and a curious ignorance to uncertainty.
Heck, I'm not even as bearish on Netflix heading into 2013 as I was a throughout all of 2011. In fact, I classify myself moderately bullish, albeit cautious.
The company has quite a bit going for it. I explain most of my cautious bullishness in this article and several linked within it . In fact, back at the end of July, I advocated buying NFLX before it rises from the dead . The stock is up about 67% since then.
But we need some moderation alongside this bullish NFLX spin from the usual suspects.
We need Apple's Tim Cook to come out and talk about the nuts and bolts of negotiating with big-time content companies. Hastings tries to present these relationships as "partnerships." Bull!
We need the great CEO of Time Warner (TWX) , Jeff Bewkes, to come out in his typical straightforward fashion and explain why Disney did a really dumb thing. Of course, I assume Bewkes agrees with me (or that I agree with him), but based on what I know about the guy I would be shocked if he viewed the situation all that differently than I do.